240 FXUS64 KEPZ 110944 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 344 AM MDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Westerly winds will bring one more day of dry and seasonably warm weather across southern New Mexico and west Texas today. The remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio will move across the region Friday and Friday night causing widespread rains over the Borderland. A few areas may experience heavy rains with possible flooding. Early next week a cold front and upper disturbances will result in cooler below normal temperatures along with isolated to scattered rain showers. && .DISCUSSION... West to southwest winds will bring one more day of dry weather today with afternoon highs rising to near normal. Thereafter overall regional pattern becomes more complex. First an upper low will become established off the southern California coast tonight with circulation around this feature steering the remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio across central Baja into northwestern Mexico Friday morning and afternoon. Friday night and early Saturday morning expect the storm to continue tracking to the northeast just south of the border to across the El Paso vicinity. Cyclonic flow around the storm should advect abundant moisture into New Mexico and far west Texas causing surface dewpoints to increase above 50 F and precipitable water to rise to around 1.1 to 1.3 inches. Air mass will have little convective instability but low level moisture convergence associated with storm will provide low level forcing with region also located in right rear quadrant of 100 kt upper jet streak to the northeast. Finally upward motion will be enhanced along the slopes of higher terrain. These factors should support scattered to numerous rain showers especially Friday afternoon and Friday night. Expect some locations may receive up to 2 inch rainfalls so flooding remains primary weather hazard. Models still showing variations in the track of Sergio which in turn is causing differences in QPF fields. Thus will hold off issuing any Flood Watches this far in advance. Sergio remnants should be east of the CWA by late Saturday morning but upper low will be drifting slowly southward through southern California into Arizona Saturday through Sunday inducing southwest winds through New Mexico and west Texas with some inflow of moist weakly unstable air. In addition a strong cold front will move east to west through the CWA late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. This pattern scenario will generate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday and especially late Sunday when front provides enhanced lifting. Both GFs and ECMWF develop another closed low around Arizona after Sunday with system showing little movement into Wednesday. The low will sustain southwest winds aloft across the CWA causing relatively warm and moist air from the Baja region to be lifted over the cooler air at the surface. This situation will sustain isolated to scattered rain showers extended periods. Cool air advection will also lower Monday high temperatures to around 20 degrees below normal with snow possible over the higher mountains late Monday night. && .AVIATION...Valid 11/12z-12/12z. VFR conditions with areas of ceilings above 10,000 feet through 03z. After 03z skies SCT-BKN060-100 with a few areas of showers and thunderstorms. Surface winds mostly from 5-15KT. && .FIRE WEATHER... Westerly winds will bring one more day of dry and seasonably warm weather across southern New Mexico and west Texas today. The remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio will move across the region Friday and Friday night causing widespread rains over the Borderland. A few areas may experience heavy rains with possible flooding. Early next week a cold front and upper disturbances will result in cooler below normal temperatures along with isolated to scattered rain showers. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 80 61 74 60 / 0 20 40 60 Sierra Blanca 79 58 76 57 / 0 20 20 70 Las Cruces 77 55 71 55 / 0 10 40 60 Alamogordo 76 55 73 56 / 0 10 30 60 Cloudcroft 55 42 55 43 / 0 20 40 70 Truth or Consequences 75 54 71 55 / 0 10 60 60 Silver City 70 49 65 50 / 0 20 60 60 Deming 77 55 70 55 / 0 20 60 60 Lordsburg 76 54 69 56 / 0 20 60 60 West El Paso Metro 79 61 72 59 / 0 20 40 60 Dell City 80 57 77 58 / 0 20 20 60 Fort Hancock 83 61 80 60 / 0 20 20 60 Loma Linda 76 57 71 55 / 0 20 30 70 Fabens 82 59 76 58 / 0 20 30 60 Santa Teresa 79 59 72 58 / 0 20 40 60 White Sands HQ 77 57 72 58 / 0 10 40 60 Jornada Range 76 56 72 57 / 0 10 40 60 Hatch 77 55 72 56 / 0 10 40 60 Columbus 78 58 71 57 / 0 20 60 60 Orogrande 77 58 73 58 / 0 20 30 60 Mayhill 64 46 64 47 / 0 20 40 70 Mescalero 64 45 62 47 / 0 10 40 70 Timberon 64 46 61 47 / 0 20 40 70 Winston 69 44 64 45 / 0 10 70 60 Hillsboro 72 50 69 51 / 0 10 70 60 Spaceport 75 53 71 55 / 0 10 40 60 Lake Roberts 68 44 63 44 / 0 20 70 60 Hurley 72 49 65 50 / 0 20 60 60 Cliff 74 47 69 49 / 0 20 60 60 Mule Creek 71 50 67 51 / 0 20 70 60 Faywood 71 51 66 52 / 0 20 60 60 Animas 77 56 70 57 / 0 30 70 60 Hachita 78 54 70 55 / 0 20 60 60 Antelope Wells 77 54 70 55 / 0 30 70 60 Cloverdale 72 53 66 54 / 0 30 70 60 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 05 Rogash