729 FXUS64 KEPZ 102115 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 315 PM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... We will see a nice day on Thursday with near average high temperatures under mostly sunny skies, but then clouds, moisture and rain chances will be on the increase for Friday as moisture associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio move across the region. The weekend is looking drier with average high temperatures, but then the first part of next week looks unsettled with rain chances and temperatures well below average. && .DISCUSSION... As all the eyes of the U.S. are focused on the Florida Gulf Coast watching the devastating effects of major Hurricane Michael, our thoughts and prayers are with those in the path of the devastating storm. In a couple of days we will have our own tropical system moving across the area, but the effects from the remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio will in no way be comparable with what is happening in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. Currently Sergio is still a day and a half from making landfall along the Baja of Mexico. In the meantime we will continue our sunny and seasonal weather for Thursday and most of Friday. High temperatures on Thursday will be right near average and highs on Friday may slip a few degrees below average. The challenge with this forecast is the exact track of Sergio. The GFS models takes the remnants across southern New Mexico, with the ECMWF takes the remnants directly across El Paso, while the NAM model keeps the remnants a little to the south of El Paso. The track of the remnants is important, it means the difference between a trace of rain and possibly 2 to 3 inches of rain. Right now I have stuck with the middle ground and kept most of the area receiving 0.50 to 1 inch of rain late Friday into Saturday. The Bootheel is a little higher and Hudspeth County is a little lower. We should get a better idea on the track of Sergio by tomorrow. By Saturday afternoon the remnants of Sergio will be well to our east and we will see return to more pleasant weather for the rest of Saturday and most of Sunday. By late Sunday, two weather factors will begin to set the stage for our next round of weather. An upper level trough will settle into the southwest U.S. and that will turn our flow more to a southerly direction, while at the surface a back door cold front will be under cutting this southerly flow. As the front undercuts the southerly flow this will provide some lift to give us a chance for rain on Monday. And since both the upper level trough and the easterly winds at the surface will be slow to change, we will continue to see rain chances through the middle of next week. Now I'm not talking about a solid three days of rain, but each day will see off and on showers as long as the upper trough is to our west and the surface flow is from the east. Needless to say behind the cold front and with all the clouds and rain, we will see our high temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees below average. Fall is definitely here. && .AVIATION...Valid 11/00Z-12/00Z...Flow aloft will shift southwest, ahead of another upper level trough that will deepen over the western states. This will draw the remnants of Sergio or way for increasing high cloudiness on Wednesday. Winds light and variable tonight through 16Z Thursday...then 220-240/10-15kts with gusts to 20kts. VSBY P6SM through pd. Clds FEW-SCT060-090 thru 03Z, then SKC thru 13Z Thu. Clds FEW250-280 aft 13Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry weather with a warmup to near normal temperatures, will continue today and Thursday, as our flow aloft turns southwest across the region. This is ahead of another upper level trough already taking shape over the western states. Strengthening southwest winds aloft ahead of the trough, will draw the remnants from Sergio up our way by weeks end. This feature will move through fairly quickly Friday through early Saturday, with the heaviest rainfall expected overnight Friday into early Saturday...mainly along the interstate 10 corridor and east of Hwy 70/82 to to Alamogordo and Cloudcroft. Generally 0.5-1.0 inches are expected for these areas, with lesser amounts northward. Locally higher amounts will be a possible along the southern and western facing slopes of our southern mountain ranges. A strong back door cold front will follow late Sunday and Sunday evening, with a shift to strong east winds primarily along our eastern and southern lowlands. West facing slopes will experience the highest sustained wind speeds and gusts during this time, with the potential for gusts to 40 mph or more. Min RH today will range from the lower 20's lowlands...to lower 30's mountains. Readings Thursday climb roughly 5-10%, then another 15- 20% Friday, where values around 60% are expected for the high country. Lowland readings 40-50% are on tap to end the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 53 80 60 74 / 0 0 20 40 Sierra Blanca 51 79 57 76 / 0 0 20 20 Las Cruces 47 77 54 71 / 0 0 10 40 Alamogordo 48 76 54 73 / 0 0 10 30 Cloudcroft 36 55 41 55 / 0 0 10 40 Truth or Consequences 46 75 53 71 / 0 0 0 60 Silver City 42 70 48 65 / 0 0 20 60 Deming 45 77 54 70 / 0 0 20 60 Lordsburg 46 76 53 69 / 0 0 30 60 West El Paso Metro 54 79 60 72 / 0 0 20 40 Dell City 52 80 56 77 / 0 0 20 20 Fort Hancock 54 83 60 80 / 0 0 20 20 Loma Linda 50 76 56 71 / 0 0 20 30 Fabens 52 82 58 76 / 0 0 20 30 Santa Teresa 50 79 58 72 / 0 0 20 40 White Sands HQ 50 77 56 72 / 0 0 0 40 Jornada Range 46 76 55 72 / 0 0 0 40 Hatch 48 77 54 72 / 0 0 0 40 Columbus 48 78 57 71 / 0 0 20 60 Orogrande 50 77 57 73 / 0 0 10 30 Mayhill 39 64 45 64 / 0 0 20 40 Mescalero 40 64 44 62 / 0 0 10 40 Timberon 39 64 45 61 / 0 0 20 40 Winston 35 69 43 64 / 0 0 10 70 Hillsboro 43 72 49 69 / 0 0 10 70 Spaceport 47 75 52 71 / 0 0 0 40 Lake Roberts 32 68 43 63 / 0 0 20 70 Hurley 42 72 48 65 / 0 0 20 60 Cliff 37 74 46 69 / 0 0 20 60 Mule Creek 39 71 49 67 / 0 0 20 70 Faywood 43 71 50 66 / 0 0 20 60 Animas 47 77 55 70 / 0 0 30 70 Hachita 44 78 53 70 / 0 0 30 60 Antelope Wells 46 77 53 70 / 0 0 30 60 Cloverdale 46 72 52 66 / 0 0 30 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ Brice/Tripoli