352 FXUS64 KEPZ 100948 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 348 AM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Westerly winds will bring dry warmer weather across southern New Mexico and west Texas today and Thursday. The remnants of Hurricane Sergio will move across the region Thursday night...Friday and Friday night causing widespread rain showers and areas of heavy rainfall. Chances for rain will continue this weekend and early next week as a cold front moves across the region while an upper low pressure system approaches from the west. Temperatures will also become cooler Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Deep west to southwest flow will cover southern New mexico and far west Texas today through Thursday afternoon with warmer dry air flowing into the region. So expect no rainfall with high temperatures warming to near normal on Thursday. Situation then becomes more complex as upper low becomes located off the California coast Thursday night while weakening tropical storm Sergio enters central Baja. Resultant pattern will steer remnants of Sergio to the northeast across northwestern and north central Mexico on Friday evening and into far west Texas early Saturday. Circulation around the storm will transport tropical moisture into the CWA causing precipitable water to rise to around 1.1 to 1.3 inches. Little instability is expected but moisture convergence induced with storm...upslope flow and upper dynamics associated with 100 kt upper jet streak to the northeast should provide sufficient forcing for widespread rainfalls Friday and Friday night. Still expecting rainfall amounts to exceed an inch over a few locations. Sergio remnants will be east of the CWA by noon Saturday but upper low will be sliding slowly southward along the California coast into northern Baja Saturday through Sunday. Cyclonic flow around this system will advect more moisture into the CWA. Then on Sunday a rather strong cold front will move east to west across New Mexico and west Texas with easterly winds behind the boundary pushing cooler Canadian air into the region. This pattern will result in warmer more moist air from the southwest being lifted up and mover the low level dome of cooler air. Thus expect rain showers to occur over much of the CWA this weekend and early next week. In addition temperatures should cool to around 15 to 20 degrees below normal on Monday. && .AVIATION...Valid 10/12z-11/12z. VFR mostly conditions with skies SKC-SCT100. Surface winds around 5-15KT. && .FIRE WEATHER... Westerly winds will bring dry warmer weather across southern New Mexico and west Texas today and Thursday. The remnants of Hurricane Sergio will move across the region Thursday night...Friday and Friday night causing widespread rain showers and areas of heavy rainfall. Over an inch of rain will fall over a few areas Friday and Friday night. Chances for rain will continue this weekend and early next week as a cold front moves across the region while an upper low pressure system approaches from the west. Temperatures will also become cooler Sunday and Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 76 52 80 60 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 78 50 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 73 46 77 54 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 72 47 76 54 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 52 35 55 41 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 72 45 75 53 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 67 41 70 48 / 0 0 0 20 Deming 73 44 77 54 / 0 0 0 20 Lordsburg 73 45 76 53 / 0 0 0 30 West El Paso Metro 75 53 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 78 51 80 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 80 53 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 72 49 76 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 78 51 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 75 49 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 74 49 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 73 45 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 74 47 77 54 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 75 47 78 57 / 0 0 0 20 Orogrande 73 49 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 63 38 64 45 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 61 39 64 44 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 60 38 64 45 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 67 34 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 71 42 72 49 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 73 46 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 66 31 68 43 / 0 0 0 20 Hurley 69 41 72 48 / 0 0 0 20 Cliff 72 36 74 46 / 0 0 0 20 Mule Creek 70 38 71 49 / 0 0 0 20 Faywood 69 42 71 50 / 0 0 0 20 Animas 75 46 77 55 / 0 0 0 30 Hachita 74 43 78 53 / 0 0 0 30 Antelope Wells 75 45 77 53 / 0 0 0 30 Cloverdale 71 45 72 52 / 0 0 0 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 05 Rogash