646 FXUS64 KEPZ 092051 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 251 PM MDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Deep upper trough continues to shift east reducing our precipitation chances overnight. Warmer and drier air moves into the region bringing our temperatures to near normal by Thursday. Otherwise, we mostly stay below normal this week as moisture from the remnants of Sergio increases our cloud cover keeping us cool late this week and into the weekend. The remnants bring a chance for showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms along with possible heavy rain in isolated areas. Early next week a backdoor cold front reaches the Borderland with breezy winds and colder temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... The upper trough responsible for the rain and low temperatures is moving east. Water vapor imagery from GOES-16 is showing drier air moving into the region. As the upper level system keeps moving away from us skies will keep clearing, as well as our rain chances drop out. By sunset most of the rain should be out of the area with the exception of the Sacramento Mountains, where rain and even a very slight chance for snow is possible in the highest elevations. Colder air behind the trough may allow other areas reach near freezing conditions in the mountain zones over the Gila Region and the Sacramento Mountains. Over the next couple of days a zonal pattern sets in allowing drier and warmer air from the west into the Borderland. Temperatures will return to near normal values under mostly sunny skies and generally light winds. However, don't get used to that as the remnants of Sergio helped by an upper trough from the West Coast moves over southern New Mexico and west Texas. Both the GFS and ECMWF models have slowed down Sergio's translation speed. The bulk of the precip will be reaching our region towards Friday evening and leaving the area on Saturday morning. However, models keep hinting at lower POP's, even WPC latest QPF guidance show significantly less rainfall amounts. Slower movement from the tropical system may have it over colder waters during a longer timeframe, as well as a slight shift to the south have it going across the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico which will help weakening the storm. Also looking at instability parameters like Lifted Index and CAPE, show little to no instability. This would reduce the chances for strong thunderstorms, but there are probabilities for isolated areas receiving heavy rain. Early next week a back door cold front moves in too. This system keeps slight rain chances, and breezy conditions over the region. The colder airmass behind it will bring well below normal temperatures. A closed low off of Baja California may keep some low rain chances and continue cooler temperatures next week as it moves into the Southwest Deserts. && .AVIATION...Valid 10/00Z-11/00Z... Upper level trough exits the region around 04Z, with drier west- northwest flow aloft to follow overnight. Winds aloft shift southwest Wednesday. VSBY P6SM through pd. Clds FEW-SCT060-090 FEW110-130 THRU 03Z, then FEW250-280 aft 20Z Wed. Sfc winds 270-29010G18KT thru 03Z, then VRB til 16Z. Winds 230- 250/05-10KT thereafter through end of the period. ISOLD -SHRA Sacramento Mtns through 02Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier weather will temporarily return for our fire zones beginning this this evening on westerly flow aloft, before another upper level trough draws remnants from Sergio up our way by weeks end. Feature will move through fairly quickly Friday night/early Saturday, with 0.5-1.50" rainfall expected for this period. Locally higher amounts will be a possibility along the southern and western facing slopes of area mountain ranges. A strong back door cold front will follow overnight Sunday and into Monday, with a shift to strong east winds primarily along our eastern and southern lowlands. West facing slopes will experience the highest sustained wind speeds and gusts during this time. Min RH today will range from the middle 20's lowlands...to middle 50s highest elevations. Values Wed will fall to the lower 20s lowlands to middle 30's for the high country. Readings climb roughly 15-30% Friday and range from around 40 % lowlands, to 60-65 % for the high country. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 51 76 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 50 78 51 79 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 42 73 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 45 72 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 30 52 36 55 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 43 72 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 38 67 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 41 73 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 43 73 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 51 75 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 46 78 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 51 80 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 48 72 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 47 78 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 47 75 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 46 74 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 40 73 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 42 74 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 43 75 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 47 73 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 36 63 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 37 61 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 33 60 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 29 67 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 39 71 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 41 73 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 27 66 32 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 34 69 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 32 72 37 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 30 70 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 37 69 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 44 75 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 41 74 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 42 75 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 42 71 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 29-Crespo/22-Tripoli