021 FXUS63 KEAX 110841 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 341 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .Discussion... Issued at 341 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2018 Message of the day: Flooding remains a concern, with some roads still closed due to high water, though these concerns continue to decrease. In addition, low temperatures are forecast to get down into the 30s across the area a few nights, potentially leading to some frost/freezing in the mornings this weekend into early next week. Surface high pressure continues moving southeast into the area, keeping our area dry and cool today. The clouds have stuck around longer then expected, but have begun scattering out and should clear out later today. Highs today will be in the 50s with lows tonight in the mid 30s to 40s. Friday morning, a shortwave trough will move through the region, giving us another round of rain. The rain should be light, with only up to one half of an inch of rainfall expected. This system will move through quickly, with the rain moving out Friday night. Temperatures will dip into the 30s again across the area, and if we can get enough cloud cover to clear out, we could see some patchy frost Saturday morning, mainly in central and eastern MO. This weekend, the remnants of Sergio still look to head this way, ahead of an approaching cold front and upper level shortwave trough. This will provide us with another round of rain Saturday night into Sunday. The GFS has slowed down the arrival compared to yesterday, better matching to ECMWF. Both models continue to show this round mainly impacting areas along and south of I-70. The aforementioned cold front and upper level shortwave trough will be on the heels of Sergio's remnants, not really giving us a break from the precipitation chances Sunday. The precipitation chances will continue into Monday, dropping up to about another half of an inch of rain. There are still some disagreements among models for how quickly the precipitation and cold front will move through though. The Canadian is much quicker than the GFS/ECMWF, with the GFS and ECWMF almost on the same page. The impact of this difference is if the cold air moves in quicker like the Canadian suggests, with some lingering precipitation, then we could see, dare I say it, a rain/snow mix early Monday morning. BUT, before we get too excited (or very unexcited), the GFS/ECMWF both lean toward all liquid precipitation, so while the chance exists, it is unlikely at this time. This time period will be monitored closely though. Behind the front, high pressure will move in, keeping us dry with temperatures slightly below normal both during the day and overnight for much of next week. With the cooler low temperatures, we will need to keep an eye out for additional chances for frost during the early morning hours next week. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued at 1148 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2018 Ceilings have finally lifted above 3000ft to VFR levels. Sky conditions will continue to slowly improve into the morning hours. While guidance is adamant about ceilings dissipating in the next couple of hours, satellite imagery tells a different story. Widespread ceilings extend through much of northeastern Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa which should allow VFR ceilings to extend near sunrise for all TAF sites. By late in the TAF period, mid and high level clouds will increase as the next the next system approaches from the west. Winds will continue from the northwest near 10kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Discussion...Grana Aviation...73/Otto