486 
FXUS63 KEAX 110449
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1149 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 247 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2018

The main concern continues to reside with ongoing river flooding 
throughout the CWA, which should persist through the late week. 
The good news is that a multi-day dry period will remain in place 
through the late week, following the recent prolonged heavy 
rainfall event. 

Increased surface winds behind the departing cold front will 
slacken by the late afternoon as the boundary progresses eastward. 
Cool, northwesterly flow will then follow and persist through early 
Friday. As a result, a cool overnight awaits as temps dip into the 
upper 30s across the area. Low-level stratus looks to clear later 
than previously thought, so have increased overnight lows slightly 
as a result. Widespread clearing is expected early Thursday, which 
should make for a pleasant, but cool, afternoon as temps only rise 
into the low to mid 50s by the afternoon. 

A quick moving clipper type system will brush through the region 
early Friday. Given the brevity of this system and limited tropical 
moisture connections, rainfall totals should be limited to half an 
inch or less before activity diminishes Friday afternoon. By late 
Saturday into Sunday, the remnants of Sergio will move through 
southern Missouri. This will occur within the warm sector ahead of 
an approaching cold front. Thus, expecting to see additional 
widespread precip chances beginning Saturday night through early 
Monday. The bulk of rainfall should be limited to areas along and 
south of I-70, though this could change depending on Sergio's track 
with time. Also, keeping an eye on temperature trends Sunday night 
and Monday morning as temps could approach the freezing mark in some 
areas, particularly along and north of the Missouri River. Dry and 
cooler conditions will then persist until the mid-week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2018

Ceilings have finally lifted above 3000ft to VFR levels. Sky 
conditions will continue to slowly improve into the morning hours.
While guidance is adamant about ceilings dissipating in the next 
couple of hours, satellite imagery tells a different story. 
Widespread ceilings extend through much of northeastern Kansas, 
Nebraska, and Iowa which should allow VFR ceilings to extend near 
sunrise for all TAF sites. By late in the TAF period, mid and high
level clouds will increase as the next the next system approaches
from the west. Winds will continue from the northwest near 10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...73/Otto