778 
FXUS63 KEAX 101950
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
250 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 247 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2018

The main concern continues to reside with ongoing river flooding 
throughout the CWA, which should persist through the late week. 
The good news is that a multi-day dry period will remain in place 
through the late week, following the recent prolonged heavy 
rainfall event. 

Increased surface winds behind the departing cold front will 
slacken by the late afternoon as the boundary progresses eastward. 
Cool, northwesterly flow will then follow and persist through early 
Friday. As a result, a cool overnight awaits as temps dip into the 
upper 30s across the area. Low-level stratus looks to clear later 
than previously thought, so have increased overnight lows slightly 
as a result. Widespread clearing is expected early Thursday, which 
should make for a pleasant, but cool, afternoon as temps only rise 
into the low to mid 50s by the afternoon. 

A quick moving clipper type system will brush through the region 
early Friday. Given the brevity of this system and limited tropical 
moisture connections, rainfall totals should be limited to half an 
inch or less before activity diminishes Friday afternoon. By late 
Saturday into Sunday, the remnants of Sergio will move through 
southern Missouri. This will occur within the warm sector ahead of 
an approaching cold front. Thus, expecting to see additional 
widespread precip chances beginning Saturday night through early 
Monday. The bulk of rainfall should be limited to areas along and 
south of I-70, though this could change depending on Sergio's track 
with time. Also, keeping an eye on temperature trends Sunday night 
and Monday morning as temps could approach the freezing mark in some 
areas, particularly along and north of the Missouri River. Dry and 
cooler conditions will then persist until the mid-week.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2018

Gusty westerly surface winds will slacken late this afternoon as
the cold front continues to move downstream the local area. Low-
level stratus will linger through the evening hours, though VFR
ceiling heights should return near sunset. Will see surface winds
transition to northwesterly tonight with a gradual clearing of
stratus expected by Thursday morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh