629 FXUS63 KEAX 101120 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 620 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .Discussion... Issued at 354 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2018 Message of the day: Some flooding concerns continue today, with some roads still being close and many rivers and streams already in flood, but the rain is finally coming to an end. A cold front, currently along the MO/KS border, is making its way across the region, with the associated upper level shortwave trough propagating to the northeast. There is still a small area of very light rain showers along the front, but the main area of rain has moved east, and is in the process of exiting our forecast area. The small area of light showers will probably hold together and move along the front as it moves east. The front and associated light rain should be east of a line from Kirksville to Boonville by noon today. Despite some light rain possible as the cold front moves through, no additional flooding is expected. Therefore, the Flood Watch has been canceled. We will keep the Areal Flood Warnings though, due to some roads still being closed in those areas because of flooding. And while widespread flooding is no longer expected, river flooding is ongoing at many points along multiple rivers, creeks, and streams. High pressure will move in behind the front today, finally allowing us some time to dry out. It will also keep temperatures from moving much today. Highs are expected to be in the low 60s in central MO to low 50s in western MO and eastern KS. Tonight, we will see lows in the mid to upper 30s across the area; temperatures we haven't seen since the end of April. Thursday will be similar to today, with highs in the 50s, lows in the mid 30s to 40s, and dry. We will also all finally see the sun! With lows in the mid 30s Thursday into Friday, a moist surface, and light winds, we may see some patchy frost across northeast MO. Friday, an upper level shortwave trough will quickly move through the region, providing us a chance for rain during the day. Up to around one quarter of an inch of rain is expected right now with this system. So while it won't really exacerbate the river flooding, it won't necessarily help either. With the rain, clouds, and influence of surface high pressure, highs Friday will only be in the 40s across northern MO and 50s elsewhere. Over the weekend, remnants of Sergio still look to head this way, in conjunction with a developing surface low and upper level trough over the Northern Plains. This will bring rain chances, with the best chances south of I-70, Saturday into Sunday. There are some differences among long-term models though, with the ECMWF moving things through a little later than the GFS. Either way, our area looks to have a good shot at additional precipitation. The good news is this system should remain progressive, so additional flooding is not expected at this time. Temperatures this weekend should stay in the 40s and 50s with temperatures in the 30s. We may even get close to that freezing mark Sunday night into Monday. Once this system moves through, we should see some dry time again, at least through mid-week. && .Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning) Issued at 620 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2018 MVFR and areas of IFR conditions are being seen across the region as a cold front moves through, west to east. There are also very light scattered showers along the cold front, which has been dropping visibilities temporarily. The front and showers will continue moving east, exiting the forecast area around 15Z-16Z. Behind the front, ceilings should begin to slowly lift to VFR. Also, wind speeds will pick up, with gusts between 20-25 kts. This afternoon, everyone should become VFR and this evening, the clouds should finally begin to clear. Finally, winds will shift to the northwest tonight. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Discussion...Grana Aviation...Grana