805 FXUS63 KEAX 100031 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 731 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .Discussion... Issued at 206 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2018 Mounting instability across east central KS and central into eastern MO has allowed isolated convection to develop across southern and eastern portions of the CWA, and instability will surge northward as breaks of sunshine work their way northward this afternoon. 0-1 km shear in the 30-40 kt range and 0-1 SRH of 200+ m2/s2 will support low-level circulations, so anywhere a relatively robust storm can develop, rotation leading to either damaging winds or brief tornadoes are possible. Both the isolated storms in the warm sector and a QLCS lifting up out of northeast OK and southeast KS will be targets for potential rotation, as many of the weak rain showers that have developed across central MO are quickly intensifying into mini supercells. The QLCS will lift northeast, merging with ongoing warm-sector convection and eventually helping push the system out this evening. A few lingering showers and embedded storms are possible behind the QLCS until the synoptic front pushes through early tomorrow morning; however the worked over environment will be less supportive of severe weather after the current afternoon/evening round moves through. Despite the fast-moving storm motion, recent rainfall has made the area very susceptible to flooding. Saturated ground and nearly full ditches, creeks, and streams has lowered the amount of rain necessary for flash flooding to less than a quarter of an inch of rainfall in an hour in the most saturated areas, and at most, less than an inch throughout the forecast area. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Wednesday morning, and while the heavy rain responsible for the flooding will taper off by then, flooding issues will likely persist into the latter half of the week as rivers and creeks continue to rise. Quieter and cooler conditions are expected through the rest of the work week, then precipitation chances return for the weekend. Hurricane Sergio will push southeast into the Baja Peninsula by early Friday morning, and into the central CONUS by Saturday morning. Rain showers associated with the system are currently expected to spread across at least the southern half of the forecast area Saturday evening through Sunday, although any slowing of the Hurricane will impact timing and perhaps the northward extent of the precipitation. && .Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 731 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2018 Expect mostly VFR conditions this evening with MVFR conditions possible in isolated showers. By midnight ceilings will begin to lower to MVFR and eventually areas may drop to IFR levels before morning. Patchy fog will develop in low lying areas with KSTJ having the worst visibility of all area TAF sites with visibilities possibly down to 1 mile. Low ceilings and areas of fog will improve to VFR conditions by late morning as a cold moves though the area. Winds will shift from the south to the west/west northwest at 12kts with the cold front passage. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105. MO...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020>024-028>030-037-043. && $$ Discussion...Laflin Aviation...73/Otto