069 FXUS63 KEAX 091906 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 206 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .Discussion... Issued at 206 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2018 Mounting instability across east central KS and central into eastern MO has allowed isolated convection to develop across southern and eastern portions of the CWA, and instability will surge northward as breaks of sunshine work their way northward this afternoon. 0-1 km shear in the 30-40 kt range and 0-1 SRH of 200+ m2/s2 will support low-level circulations, so anywhere a relatively robust storm can develop, rotation leading to either damaging winds or brief tornadoes are possible. Both the isolated storms in the warm sector and a QLCS lifting up out of northeast OK and southeast KS will be targets for potential rotation, as many of the weak rain showers that have developed across central MO are quickly intensifying into mini supercells. The QLCS will lift northeast, merging with ongoing warm-sector convection and eventually helping push the system out this evening. A few lingering showers and embedded storms are possible behind the QLCS until the synoptic front pushes through early tomorrow morning; however the worked over environment will be less supportive of severe weather after the current afternoon/evening round moves through. Despite the fast-moving storm motion, recent rainfall has made the area very susceptible to flooding. Saturated ground and nearly full ditches, creeks, and streams has lowered the amount of rain necessary for flash flooding to less than a quarter of an inch of rainfall in an hour in the most saturated areas, and at most, less than an inch throughout the forecast area. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Wednesday morning, and while the heavy rain responsible for the flooding will taper off by then, flooding issues will likely persist into the latter half of the week as rivers and creeks continue to rise. Quieter and cooler conditions are expected through the rest of the work week, then precipitation chances return for the weekend. Hurricane Sergio will push southeast into the Baja Peninsula by early Friday morning, and into the central CONUS by Saturday morning. Rain showers associated with the system are currently expected to spread across at least the southern half of the forecast area Saturday evening through Sunday, although any slowing of the Hurricane will impact timing and perhaps the northward extent of the precipitation. && .Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 1242 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2018 IFR stratus associated with the rain showers pushing north across all TAF sites this morning should depart over the next hour, leaving developing cumulus based around 3 kft as the primary ceiling. Isolated storms may develop over the next 1-2 hours, then the main line of storms will push through around 20z-22z at all TAF sites. Reduced visibility, variable wind, and lowered ceilings are all possible in the most intense storms. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will trail behind, gradually tapering off late this evening. After storms depart, lower ceilings will wrap in behind and gradually transition all TAF sites to IFR. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ025-057-060-102>105. MO...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020>024-028>030-037-043. && $$ Discussion...Laflin Aviation...Laflin