835 FXUS63 KDVN 110828 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 328 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Low pressure was over Lake Superior early this morning, while a surface ridge axis extends from the Northern Rockies through the Central Plains. A tight pressure gradient in between these two is fueling gusty W/NW winds, which continues ushering in much colder air. Temperatures have been steadily dropping through the 40s, and now even some upper 30s into central and northeast Iowa where with the wind it feels more like the upper 20s and lower 30s!! These air temperatures are a good 25-30 degrees colder from 24 hrs ago at which time we were positioned ahead of a cold front. This front is now pushing through the Ohio Valley and helping to scoop up and accelerate the remnants of Hurricane Michael - now a Tropical Storm located over Georgia. Overall, cool and dry conditions ins the next 24 hours, and generally a mainly drier regime is setting up over the next 7-10+ days which is great news for the flooding on area rivers. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Hazards in the short term...frost/freeze conditions tonight. High pressure will gradually build into the region later today and especially tonight. This will lead to some much needed dry weather. Models really struggling with the stratus, which per satellite is rather extensive across the Midwest early this morning. Their evolution will be critical to the temperature forecast today and tonight. In general per soundings (OAX and MPX), moisture more shallow on the southern edge and deeper north, thus with mixing and subsidence anticipate more scattering and increasing solar insolation initially south, evolving elsewhere in time by this afternoon into early evening. Therefore have warmest readings south (near 50/lower 50s) and coolest north (low to mid 40s). However, gusty W/NW winds 20-30 mph will make it feel more like the mid 30s to mid 40s, and combined with the sky certainly will have more of a November- esque look and feel. Can't also entirely rule out a stray sprinkle this morning in presence of rather steep low level lapse rates. Tonight, the stage will be set for a cold night as winds diminish with incoming surface high pressure. Lows should drop into the 30s area-wide with initially clear/mostly clear skies. Overnight we are likely to see some increase in mid/high clouds from the SW ahead of an upper level wave. This could have some impact on lows and frost/freeze potential especially SW cwa. In general though anticipate widespread lows in the lower to mid 30s, with freeze conditions along/n of Hwy 30 and frost potential elsewhere especially in those protected or sheltered areas. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Overall, quiet weather in the extended, with mainly dry conditions and cold temperatures; with daily highs about 10 to 25 degrees below normal. A quick moving system tracks across MO Friday, which brings some rain chances back into the area with likely chances along and south of Highway 34 from Ottumwa to Galesburg, with slight chances up to the Highway 20 corridor. Only light rainfall amounts are expected. Low temperatures for every day through the extended drop into the 30s (at times lower 30s) in parts of the CWA. Thus, frost/freeze potential will need to be watched. Another system skirts the CWA to the south Sun into Mon. The exact path is still uncertain at this time. Dry conditions are expected Mon afternoon through Thursday. High temperatures will fluctuate in the 40s to mid 50s through Wed with a slight warmup closer to normal by next Thu. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night) ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 MVFR to VFR ceilings in stratocumulus, with some erosion possible at times through daybreak and then expected this afternoon into early evening. A weak upper level disturbance will begin to approach late tonight and bring increasing mid/high cloudiness. Winds will remain gusty from W/NW at 15-25 kts through much of today before diminishing below 10 kts tonight, as high pressure builds in. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for Benton-Buchanan- Clinton-Delaware-Dubuque-Jackson-Jones-Linn. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for Cedar-Des Moines- Henry IA-Iowa-Jefferson-Johnson-Keokuk-Lee-Louisa-Muscatine- Scott-Van Buren-Washington. IL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for Carroll-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Whiteside. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for Bureau-Hancock- Henderson-Henry IL-McDonough-Mercer-Putnam-Rock Island- Warren. MO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for Clark-Scotland. && $$ SYNOPSIS...McClure SHORT TERM...McClure LONG TERM...14 AVIATION...McClure