358 FXUS63 KDMX 101738 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM.../Today through Tonight/ Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Surface low is moving through the western forecast area early this morning and will exit into Minnesota within a few hours. Associated cold front is just entering the western forecast area and this will sweep eastward during the morning with strong cold advection on the backside. Scattered showers will remain possible along and head of the front, however the best moisture transport is now east of the forecast area and the threat of widespread heavy rain has ended, therefore the Flood Watch will be cancelled. Given the arrival of much colder air, temperatures in the east will see highs this morning with steady or slowly falling readings into the afternoon. Also anticipate the stratus to linger through the day with soundings showing saturated layer below the frontal inversion. In addition, northwest winds will intensify through the day as the low continues to deepen and cold advection persists. Winds will remain quite strong overnight with near advisory criteria as gusts of 40 mph seem reasonable across northern Iowa given 35 kts at top of mixed layer. Stratus also lingers across much of the area and this seems reasonable as we head toward more climatologically favorable season for low clouds. Temperatures are forecast to drop to near freezing as well. Frost is not expected given the clouds and strong winds, however a few locations may reach freezing in the far north and west at this point, but a widespread freeze seems somewhat limited and have held off on any headlines at this point. .LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/ Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Unseasonably cool conditions are expected on Thursday with lingering stratus in the north, although this will likely dissipate in the afternoon as drier air arrives with the approach of the surface ridge. Winds are expected to weaken on Thursday evening and with clear skies, temperatures will fall quickly. Frost is expected by late evening in most locations given the good radiational cooling, however clouds will be on the increase overnight. As the clouds expand and thicken over central Iowa, frost development will cease and most of the west and south should see steady or even slowly rising temperatures in the early morning hours. Still some variability in the models with the system on Friday as isentropic lift increases. GFS has remained drier and a bit farther south with the track leaving much of the forecast area with little precipitation. The Euro remains much more committed to stronger forcing and lift into Iowa with light rain across the south on Friday. Have gone with low end likelies/high end chances pops to cover this system although overall QPF should be light and not cause any additional concerns for flooding. Another cool night is expected Friday night with clearing behind the system and the threat of more frost. The next shortwave advertised to affect the state into the weekend continues to drop farther south each model cycle with the bulk of forcing and associated precipitation remaining south of Iowa, therefore pops continue to be lowered. Temperatures will remain much below normal through the weekend as unabated flow from Canada drops into the upper Midwest. Otherwise, the drier conditions will persist into next week with some gradual moderation to temperatures. && .AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon/ Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Main concerns will be clouds and winds. Upper level low tracking away from the region today...but strong northwest mixing continues as well as MVFR cigs over the region. Continued cold air advection will keep winds well mixed overnight with MVFR cigs remaining. A return to VFR conditions will occur over central and southern sites KDSM/KOTM between 11 and 13z while the north will likely remain MVFR through 16 to 18z Thursday. Have introduced VCSH for KMCW aft 21z as either a brief period of -RA or -DZ may accompany a trough sliding along the MN-IA border yet today. /rev && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cogil LONG TERM...Cogil AVIATION...REV