639 FXUS63 KDLH 110825 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 325 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 A quieter forecast is on tap for today and Friday as the potent area of low pressure that brought heavy rainfall, strong northeast winds, large waves over Lake Superior, and lakeshore flooding the last few days will gradually lift northeast. Despite the low center tracking away from the region, we will remain under the northwesterly cyclonic flow from the low. This will linger a tight pressure gradient over the Northland and usher in cold air advection on the northwest flow, so today will be a bit chilly and brisk. Northwest winds will be 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph, particularly along the south shore of Lake Superior. High temperatures today will be in the lower to middle 30s. Along with the brisk conditions, some light snow will be possible, mainly over the Arrowhead region and along the higher elevations of the Penokee Range of northern Iron county in northwest Wisconsin due to northwesterly flow of the lake. Additional snow accumulation could be up to one inch from this afternoon through the overnight hours tonight. A drier forecast is on tap for Friday as mid-level ridging and surface high pressure build into the region, along with large scale subsidence. Soundings show a large amount of dry air pouring into the region, so chances of precipitation will be hard to find, despite the persistent northwesterly flow aloft. Winds will also be weaker on Friday compared to today, with highs hovering in the middle to upper 30s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 252 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 The Northland will be under northwest flow through most of the period, leading to below normal temperatures, well below over the weekend into early next week. There will be at least a couple shortwaves that will affect the region, bringing chances for snow and rain. Warm air advection ahead of an area of low pressure and shortwave trough will occur Friday night. A surface low will move across southern Canada moving to just north of Lake Superior by 12Z Sunday. A couple shortwaves will affect the area over the weekend bringing a chance for rain and snow. The chance for precipitation will be greatest over the northern half of the Northland and some light snow accumulation will be possible. Highs Saturday will be in the forties but drop to the thirties on Sunday. Normal highs for this time of year are in the lower to mid fifties. Lake effect snow will be possible along parts of the South Shore Sunday night into Monday morning as well, although the low level winds are less than ideal being a bit too northwest. Another strong shortwave will bring a chance for snow or rain to the area Monday night into Tuesday. Light snow accumulations will again be possible, especially over far northern Minnesota. Highs will continue to be below normal through Thursday although temperatures will warm into the middle forties to lower fifties on Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 A mix of MVFR and IFR cigs through the forecast as the upper low and surface lows depart. Areas of light rain and light snow at the start of the forecast, with the Minnesota terminals transitioning to all snow through the morning. HYR should stay all rain. The precipitation will diminish from the late morning through the early afternoon. Gusty surface winds will prevail for much of the forecast, subsiding from west to east toward the end of this forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 35 26 38 28 / 50 10 0 0 INL 34 25 36 27 / 70 20 0 10 BRD 35 25 43 31 / 10 0 0 10 HYR 37 27 39 29 / 30 10 0 0 ASX 38 30 40 30 / 60 20 10 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010- 011-018. LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for LSZ146>148. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-144- 145. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140>143. && $$ SHORT TERM...JTS LONG TERM...Melde AVIATION...GSF/Melde