032 FXUS63 KDLH 102057 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 357 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 357 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 A strong fall storm system will continue to affect the Northland through tonight as it moves through the Great Lakes region. This low is lifting from central Wisconsin this afternoon to eastern Lake Superior by Thursday morning. The Northland is on the cool and wet side of the storm, with gale-force to storm-force winds running down the length of Lake Superior into the Twin Ports and northern Wisconsin, and areas of rain and snow. There has been flooding along the Lake Superior lakeshore, such as in Duluth and Ashland, because of the water buildup and waves generated by the northeast winds. The winds will slowly subside this evening and then back to the northwest overnight into Thursday morning with the passing low. This will mean the waves will slowly subside during this time, and eventually alleviate the shoreline of the flooding. This will hopefully occur by late this evening. Meanwhile, rain will transition to more snow overnight as cooler air works its way into the region. This precipitation will be related to the deformation zone of the departing low. North- central Minnesota could see up to a couple or few inches of snow, such as by International Falls. Northwest Koochiching County could get up to nearly 6 inches. Even Duluth could get snow, but only about a half inch. Most of this snowfall will be in the grass and forests, because the roads are still relatively warm and will help melt the snow. Thursday looks cold and blustery. There will lingering snow and rain showers in the morning, primarily over far northern Minnesota and downwind of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin. Highs will be in the middle to upper 30s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 357 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 An upper level trough pattern continues while surface high pressure tries to build in. Eventually the upper level trough will win and spawn an clipper system that crosses on Saturday. Because of that trough, overall the atmosphere will be cool to cold resulting in a mixed phase precip event straddling our forecast area during the day Saturday and a more snow forecast for the backside of the system Sunday. Luckily QPF won't amount to much limiting any significant snow potential. A second clipper system passes midweek as the upper trough inches closer, but overall the region remains cool and wet, but not as wet as the last week. The sun should at least make a return at times. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions are forecast through tomorrow morning because of rain, snow, and low ceilings. A strong storm system is moving through the region. Most of the snow will affect areas of northeast Minnesota, especially in north-central Minnesota, including KINL. Gusty winds east to northeast winds today will back to the north and then northwest tonight into Thursday morning. The snow should not affect KDLH until after midnight, and then linger into the morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 31 37 26 38 / 90 40 10 0 INL 29 36 25 36 / 100 70 20 0 BRD 31 37 25 42 / 90 20 0 0 HYR 34 39 27 40 / 90 50 10 0 ASX 36 41 30 41 / 90 60 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Lakeshore Flood Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001>003. MN...Lakeshore Flood Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ020- 037. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for MNZ010-011- 018. LS...Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ140>147. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-148. && $$ SHORT TERM...Grochocinski LONG TERM...Wolfe AVIATION...Grochocinski