668 FXUS63 KDLH 101733 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1233 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Updated for the latest 18Z Aviation Discussion below. UPDATE Issued at 1010 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 It is a busy morning. We have been getting reports of flooding in the Duluth area from the surge from Lake Superior. A ship in the lake was reporting stronger winds than our forecast, to as high as 64 mph, which prompted us to issue a Storm Warning for the nearshore waters near the Twin Ports. Planning to let the Lakeshore Flood Warning to continue through this afternoon until the winds begin to weaken later today. We felt confident to remove some areas of the flood watch, but kept much of northwest Wisconsin going until 1 pm. While the rain has lightened and there are not many particular areas experiencing flooding, water levels along streams and rivers in the area are high. It is still possible areas could be affected by flooding. One area to watch will be the Bad River near Highway 2, and we are contact with individual who will keep us posted about his observations of the river levels. It might not crest there until tomorrow, and it still has plenty to rise before it would begin to impact the area. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 A strong autumn storm continues to make its way north into the Upper Mississippi Valley region this morning as an area of low pressure currently located over northwestern Iowa approaches. A very stagnant synoptic pattern continues to impact the region, with meridional flow characterized by a longwave trough over the Intermountain West states and a large upper-level ridge over the far southeastern United States. A large area of heavy rainfall continues to move through the Northland early this morning, which will eventually give way to some lighter rain showers over much of the area. The HREF ensembles and CAM guidance all show a dry slot that will bring a brief respite from rainfall for many in the region later this morning and into the afternoon. However, as the area of low pressure lifts through central Wisconsin and away from the region, cold air advection and northwesterly cyclonic flow will move in, keeping precipitation in the picture through the day today. Model soundings indicate a mixed bag of precipitation, as some light to moderate snow will be possible over far north-central Minnesota due to a lingering band of deformation. Precipitation will remain mostly rain through the afternoon, with a transition to mostly snow this evening through tonight from west to east. Strong northeast flow off Lake Superior will maintain large waves, particularly near the lake shore, so the Lakeshore Flood Warning and Wind Advisory continues. The main changes to headlines were cutting back the end time to the Flood Watch to 18z today as the dry slot moves into the region, putting an end to the heavier precipitation. Also, current analysis of the MRMS CREST Maximum Unit Streamflow product shows that area rivers are not reaching critical thresholds for flooding concerns, despite higher soil moisture. Urban flooding is still a concern this morning due to clogged storm drains and culverts from leaves and other debris possibly blocking the water flow. Snowfall accumulations are forecast to range from 3" to 7" over north-central Minnesota. Another change to the headlines is an expansion of the Winter Weather Advisory to northern Itasca due to the potential for 2" to 4" over this area. The advisory continues through 12z/7am Thursday morning. Overnight, the cold air advection and cyclonic flow takes hold, keeping precipitation in the picture. Overnight lows will range from the upper 20s along and north of the Iron Range, with lower 30s from the Twin Ports and points south and west. High temperatures on Thursday will remain cool for this time of the year, in the middle to upper 30s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Main concern for long term is precip types. No major storm is expected. An area of high pressure will build into the forecast region Thursday night ending the period of wet weather for a couple of days. Friday will be partly to mostly sunny with below normal temps with highs only in the 40s. It will be partly sunny on Saturday with warmer temps. However, a shortwave will move through southern Canada and bring a mixture of rain and snow to mainly northern Minnesota Saturday night and Sunday. Another high pressure system builds into the region Sunday night and will keep the area precip free on Monday. Another shortwave will move through northern Minnesota on Tuesday and Wednesday and will bring another chance for rain or snow or a mixture. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions are forecast through tomorrow morning because of rain, snow, and low ceilings. A strong storm system is moving through the region. Most of the snow will affect areas of northeast Minnesota, especially in north-central Minnesota, including KINL. Gusty winds east to northeast winds today will back to the north and then northwest tonight into Thursday morning. The snow should not affect KDLH until after midnight, and then linger into the morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 42 31 37 26 / 90 90 40 0 INL 35 29 36 25 / 100 100 70 10 BRD 42 31 37 26 / 90 90 20 0 HYR 44 33 39 28 / 80 90 50 0 ASX 44 36 41 31 / 90 90 60 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Lakeshore Flood Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ001>003. Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ001>003. Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ002>004-007>009. MN...Lakeshore Flood Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ020- 037. Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ020-037. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for MNZ010-011- 018. LS...Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-140>143-146>148. Storm Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ144-145. && $$ UPDATE...Grochocinski SHORT TERM...JTS LONG TERM...Stewart AVIATION...Grochocinski