025 FXUS63 KDLH 100920 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 420 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 A strong autumn storm continues to make its way north into the Upper Mississippi Valley region this morning as an area of low pressure currently located over northwestern Iowa approaches. A very stagnant synoptic pattern continues to impact the region, with meridional flow characterized by a longwave trough over the Intermountain West states and a large upper-level ridge over the far southeastern United States. A large area of heavy rainfall continues to move through the Northland early this morning, which will eventually give way to some lighter rain showers over much of the area. The HREF ensembles and CAM guidance all show a dry slot that will bring a brief respite from rainfall for many in the region later this morning and into the afternoon. However, as the area of low pressure lifts through central Wisconsin and away from the region, cold air advection and northwesterly cyclonic flow will move in, keeping precipitation in the picture through the day today. Model soundings indicate a mixed bag of precipitation, as some light to moderate snow will be possible over far north-central Minnesota due to a lingering band of deformation. Precipitation will remain mostly rain through the afternoon, with a transition to mostly snow this evening through tonight from west to east. Strong northeast flow off Lake Superior will maintain large waves, particularly near the lake shore, so the Lakeshore Flood Warning and Wind Advisory continues. The main changes to headlines were cutting back the end time to the Flood Watch to 18z today as the dry slot moves into the region, putting an end to the heavier precipitation. Also, current analysis of the MRMS CREST Maximum Unit Streamflow product shows that area rivers are not reaching critical thresholds for flooding concerns, despite higher soil moisture. Urban flooding is still a concern this morning due to clogged storm drains and culverts from leaves and other debris possibly blocking the water flow. Snowfall accumulations are forecast to range from 3" to 7" over north-central Minnesota. Another change to the headlines is an expansion of the Winter Weather Advisory to northern Itasca due to the potential for 2" to 4" over this area. The advisory continues through 12z/7am Thursday morning. Overnight, the cold air advection and cyclonic flow takes hold, keeping precipitation in the picture. Overnight lows will range from the upper 20s along and north of the Iron Range, with lower 30s from the Twin Ports and points south and west. High temperatures on Thursday will remain cool for this time of the year, in the middle to upper 30s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Main concern for long term is precip types. No major storm is expected. An area of high pressure will build into the forecast region Thursday night ending the period of wet weather for a couple of days. Friday will be partly to mostly sunny with below normal temps with highs only in the 40s. It will be partly sunny on Saturday with warmer temps. However, a shortwave will move through southern Canada and bring a mixture of rain and snow to mainly northern Minnesota Saturday night and Sunday. Another high pressure system builds into the region Sunday night and will keep the area precip free on Monday. Another shortwave will move through northern Minnesota on Tuesday and Wednesday and will bring another chance for rain or snow or a mixture. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions affect all sites as the system continues to bring rain and mist through the TAF period. Beginning this morning, rain transitions to a rain/snow mix then into wet snow at INL. Rain also transitions to a rain/snow mix at HIB and BRD tonight. With snow in the forecast, conditions have the potential to dip into LIFR. Gusty north-northeasterly winds will affect all terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 41 30 37 26 / 90 90 30 0 INL 35 29 36 25 / 100 90 50 10 BRD 41 30 37 26 / 90 90 10 0 HYR 45 32 39 28 / 80 90 30 0 ASX 45 36 40 31 / 90 90 40 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ001>004-006>009. Lakeshore Flood Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ001>003. Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ001>003. MN...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ020-021-037-038. Lakeshore Flood Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ020- 037. Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ020-037. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for MNZ010-011- 018. LS...Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-140>148. && $$ SHORT TERM...JTS LONG TERM...Stewart AVIATION...KC