721 FXUS63 KDLH 100603 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 103 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Updated for 06Z aviation discussion. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 The well advertised storm is upon us, and the region is being overspread by rain. Winds will begin to pick up as the gradient tightens. The warm air moving up from the south will overspread cold air coming down from Canada. This will eventually lead to a rain/snow line tonight that poses a threat for multiple inches of snowfall northwest of the Iron Range, so opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory highlighting this area. Also upgraded Lakeshore Flood Watch to a Warning given that confidence is increasing in the intense winds coming down the lake along a favorable wave making fetch with high lake levels (only a tenth of a meter lower than last October's big storm). Further the duration of this wind event will be quite long leading to anonymously high waves that are easier to build if given a long duration of wind. So, a rainy, windy, and snowy period as this low moves through. There is a possibility that we dry slot tomorrow for portions of the area which may eat into the rainfall totals, but may increase the snowfall totals. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 It is a cool forecast. The Northland will have rain and snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning in the deformation zone of a passing area of low pressure. North-central Minnesota could get up 2 to 4 inches of snow. It will mostly fall overnight, and with some breezy winds. We might need to expand our winter weather advisory to more of northern Minnesota. There could also be some icing on the roads because of a small chance of freezing rain, as well as freezing from the rain when colder air moves in. The rest of Thursday looks breezy and cold, with lingering rain showers in the Arrowhead and downwind of Lake Superior. High pressure will move through Friday, so this looks like the sunniest day of the forecast. Light rain and snow are then possible Saturday and Saturday night when a Canadian Clipper passes over or just north of northern Minnesota. Rain and snow might linger through Sunday when the cold air moves in behind the low. High pressure and sunnier weather is likely Monday, but another Clipper will likely bring light rain and snow Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions affect all sites as the system continues to bring rain and mist through the TAF period. Beginning this morning, rain transitions to a rain/snow mix then into wet snow at INL. Rain also transitions to a rain/snow mix at HIB and BRD tonight. With snow in the forecast, conditions have the potential to dip into LIFR. Gusty north-northeasterly winds will affect all terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 38 41 31 38 / 100 100 90 20 INL 33 35 29 36 / 100 100 90 50 BRD 37 40 30 37 / 100 100 90 10 HYR 42 46 33 40 / 100 90 90 20 ASX 42 44 36 40 / 100 100 90 30 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flood Watch through late tonight for WIZ001>004-006>009. Lakeshore Flood Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ001>003. Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ001>003. MN...Flood Watch through late tonight for MNZ020-021-037-038. Lakeshore Flood Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ020- 037. Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ020-037. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for MNZ010-011. LS...Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-140>148. && $$ UPDATE...KC SHORT TERM...Wolfe LONG TERM...Grochocinski AVIATION...KC