660 
FXUS63 KDLH 092102
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
402 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

The well advertised storm is upon us, and the region is being
overspread by rain. Winds will begin to pick up as the gradient
tightens. The warm air moving up from the south will overspread
cold air coming down from Canada. This will eventually lead to a
rain/snow line tonight that poses a threat for multiple inches of
snowfall northwest of the Iron Range, so opted to issue a Winter
Weather Advisory highlighting this area. Also upgraded Lakeshore
Flood Watch to a Warning given that confidence is increasing in
the intense winds coming down the lake along a favorable wave
making fetch with high lake levels (only a tenth of a meter lower
than last October's big storm). Further the duration of this wind
event will be quite long leading to anonymously high waves that 
are easier to build if given a long duration of wind.

So, a rainy, windy, and snowy period as this low moves through.
There is a possibility that we dry slot tomorrow for portions of
the area which may eat into the rainfall totals, but may increase
the snowfall totals.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

It is a cool forecast. The Northland will have rain and snow 
Wednesday night into Thursday morning in the deformation zone of a
passing area of low pressure. North-central Minnesota could get 
up 2 to 4 inches of snow. It will mostly fall overnight, and with 
some breezy winds. We might need to expand our winter weather 
advisory to more of northern Minnesota. There could also be some 
icing on the roads because of a small chance of freezing rain, as 
well as freezing from the rain when colder air moves in. The rest 
of Thursday looks breezy and cold, with lingering rain showers in 
the Arrowhead and downwind of Lake Superior.

High pressure will move through Friday, so this looks like the 
sunniest day of the forecast. Light rain and snow are then possible 
Saturday and Saturday night when a Canadian Clipper passes over or 
just north of northern Minnesota. Rain and snow might linger through 
Sunday when the cold air moves in behind the low. High pressure and 
sunnier weather is likely Monday, but another Clipper will likely 
bring light rain and snow Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

Continued poor flight cats as a storm system approaches. Do not
expect much in the way of improvement through the period. TAFs are
probably on the optimistic side as some really low crud should
move through as the system gets closer.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  41  31  38 / 100 100  90  20 
INL  33  35  29  36 / 100 100  90  50 
BRD  37  40  30  37 / 100 100  90  10 
HYR  42  46  33  40 / 100  90  90  20 
ASX  42  44  36  40 / 100 100  90  30 

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for WIZ001>004-006>009.

     Lakeshore Flood Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT 
     Wednesday for WIZ001>003.

     Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT Wednesday for 
     WIZ001>003.

MN...Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for MNZ020-021-037-038.

     Lakeshore Flood Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT 
     Wednesday for MNZ020-037.

     Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT Wednesday for 
     MNZ020-037.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday 
     for MNZ010-011.

LS...Gale Warning until 4 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolfe
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...Wolfe