505 FXUS63 KDDC 110908 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 408 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...Updated Short Term and Long Term Sections... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 407 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Very early this morning, the water vapor loop and RAP analysis revealed a jet streak departing the Central Plains, but the right- entrance region of this jet over western KS overnight along with a good 700mb baroclinic zone/weak deformation led to widely scattered showers along a narrow band. These were finally decaying as of 0830 UTC. The next weather maker was over southern Nevada entering southern Utah, with the forcing for ascent ahead of this feature moving out into northern Arizona, Utah, and western Colorado. Weak low level cyclogenesis will occur today across southeastern Colorado ahead of this, and the return southeasterly flow will only act to keep a rather cool airmass in check with plenty of low level cloud cover. The abundance of stratus cloud will keep temperatures from rising much today. Highs in the 42-48 degree range are all that can be expected today from northwest to southeast across our forecast area. Later tonight, rain will develop across much of western and central Kansas ahead of the approaching system/jet streak, but overall ascent will be fairly weak, leading to forecast rainfall totals only in the one to two-tenths range (higher toward central and south central KS). Clouds will remain in check through tonight, and this will keep temperatures from dropping too much, as lows are forecast to be only a few degrees lower than today's highs for most areas. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 407 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 The next big ticket weather item will be late Saturday Night into Sunday as the first snow event of the very young cold season is expected. A rather anomalously cold airmass for mid-October will be pushing south quickly Saturday Night, as a true Canadian 1032mb high builds down the northern High Plains. A robust density current front will form, with driving cold advection expected across western Kansas in the 06-12Z Sunday time frame. Sunday's highs will most likely be at or just after midnight for most -- in the 40s. Thereafter, temperatures will only continue to fall through the 30s, just as the next precipitation event builds. The ECMWF and GFS models are actually in really good agreement, showing a formidable shortwave trough diving south through the Rockies with a very nice 500-700mb layer baroclinic zone extending from west-southwest to east-northeast across the west-central Great Plains. Moderate mid level frontogenesis will develop Sunday, leading to a banded precipitation event, first starting briefly as rain early Sunday morning, but quickly changing to all snow in the 12-18Z time frame from northwest to southeast. Again, the ECMWF and GFS deterministic solutions are very similar in the kinematic and thermodynamic characteristics of this setup Sunday -- leading to fairly good confidence in the first widespread measurable snow event of the season. A blended solution of the 11/00Z deterministic runs of the ECMWF and GFS suggest 2 to 5 inches of snow across the northwestern half of the forecast area. While the official grids will reflect this snowfall amount, the end user still needs to be very cautious in snowfall amount forecasts at the Day +3 or +4 time range, especially when frontogenetic banding is involved, as it appears to be in this case. The bottom line is that Sunday looks to be very chilly with strong north winds and at least some winter precipitation. The next big ticket item is the increasing likelihood of a growing season- ending killing freeze early Monday morning. If the storm system clears the region quick enough and we see clearing sky and lessening wind, widespread lower to mid 20s for lows are likely across much of west central and southwest Kansas. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Stratus clouds will result in a ceiling mainly above 3000 feet through the first half of this forecast period. By late morning through early afternoon, ceiling will start to gradually lower down into the 2000 to 3000 foot range for MVFR category, particularly at LBL and GCK, eventually DDC. For this TAF set, will be keeping HYS as VFR category throughout, at least until there is greater confidence in MVFR spreading that far northeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 46 44 58 40 / 10 60 40 0 GCK 43 42 58 40 / 20 50 10 10 EHA 48 46 61 43 / 20 30 0 10 LBL 50 47 61 41 / 10 40 10 10 HYS 45 40 55 37 / 10 80 50 0 P28 51 47 59 40 / 0 80 60 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ045-046-063- 064-074>078. Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for KSZ030- 031-043-044-061-062. && $$ SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...Umscheid