269 FXUS63 KDDC 101945 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...UPDATE TO LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Relatively dry conditions are expected to continue across the much of area through late Thursday afternoon as a much drier air mass associated with surface high pressure gradually spreads southeast across the high plains of western Kansas during the period. However, short range models do indicate a pronounced H5 vort maxima ejecting out of the Southern Rockies into the high plains early this evening while a small/weak H7 frontogenetic band migrates across extreme southwest Kansas. Cannot rule out sprinkles across the general area early this evening. Otherwise, the drier conditions should prevail. As for temperatures, considering highs this afternoon are lower than originally expected, lows tonight are forecast to drop down into the 30s(F) with the colder temperatures in west central and possibly central Kansas, particularly as low level stratus continue to scatter out through this evening. Lows near 40F are still possible in south central Kansas. Frost/freeze headlines for tonight will be retained. Temperatures will be fairly slow to rebound Thursday as surface high pressure edges slowly eastward out of western into central Kansas throughout the day only returning a southeast upslope flow to western Kansas by mid/late afternoon. Highs are only expected to reach the 40s(F) in west central Kansas with highs likely struggling to reach the 50s(F) further southeast. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Precip chances return Thursday evening into early Friday as an upper level shortwave trough dips southeast out of the Northern Rockies into the Western High Plains setting up an increasingly difluent westerly flow aloft. A prevailing southeasterly upslope flow will begin to increase moisture somewhat with model soundings indicating a near saturated lower/mid level profiles and very limited instability at best. Meanwhile, an intensifying upper level jet maxima is projected to lift northeast out of the Desert Southwest into the high plains of western Kansas overnight with the right entrance region of a +130kt jet core expected to develop generally across southwest Kansas roughly 06-12Z Friday morning. As a series of H5 vort maxima begin to eject out of the Southern Rockies Thursday evening, areas of light precip are expected to develop across portions of western Kansas, then spread eastward through early Friday morning. Weak QPF signals and PW values well under an inch suggest light rain at best, but an embedded roll of thunder cannot be completely ruled out due to the presence of marginal instability. There is an outside chance for precip late Saturday as the remnants of Sergio are forecast to lift quickly across the Desert Southwest into the South Plains of the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Another round of precip may be possible early Sunday as an upper level shortwave trough digs southeast across the Northern Rockies into the Western High Plains, sending an attendant cold front quickly through western Kansas into north Texas. Below normal temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday as relatively cool air mass remains settled across the high plains. Much colder air will surge into western Kansas in wake of strong cold front pushing through the region sometime Saturday night into early Sunday morning. May see temperatures fall well down into the 20s(F) for lows late Sunday night/early Monday morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 MVFR cigs will linger in the vicinity of all TAF sites this afternoon as low level stratus continues to slowly lift across the region. VFR conditions are then expected to return to all TAF sites this evening through the overnight hours. Northerly winds 5 to 15kt will persist across southwest and central Kansas this afternoon as surface high pressure remains situated across eastern Montana southward into eastern Wyoming. Winds are then expected to become light and variable this evening as the surface high spreads further southward into western Kansas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 35 49 42 59 / 0 10 60 50 GCK 33 45 41 58 / 10 10 50 30 EHA 36 50 46 59 / 10 20 30 10 LBL 38 48 45 59 / 10 10 40 30 HYS 31 48 40 55 / 0 0 90 70 P28 38 53 45 61 / 0 0 70 70 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ045-046-063- 064-074>078. Freeze Warning from 2 AM CDT /1 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Thursday for KSZ030-031-043-044-061-062. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJohnson LONG TERM...JJohnson AVIATION...JJohnson