720 FXUS63 KDDC 101800 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 100 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Relatively dry conditions are expected to continue across the much of area through late Thursday afternoon as a much drier air mass associated with surface high pressure gradually spreads southeast across the high plains of western Kansas during the period. However, short range models do indicate a pronounced H5 vort maxima ejecting out of the Southern Rockies into the high plains early this evening while a small/weak H7 frontogenetic band migrates across extreme southwest Kansas. Cannot rule out sprinkles across the general area early this evening. Otherwise, the drier conditions should prevail. As for temperatures, considering highs this afternoon are lower than originally expected, lows tonight are forecast to drop down into the 30s(F) with the colder temperatures in west central and possibly central Kansas, particularly as low level stratus continue to scatter out through this evening. Lows near 40F are still possible in south central Kansas. Frost/freeze headlines for tonight will be retained. Temperatures will be fairly slow to rebound Thursday as surface high pressure edges slowly eastward out of western into central Kansas throughout the day only returning a southeast upslope flow to western Kansas by mid/late afternoon. Highs are only expected to reach the 40s(F) in west central Kansas with highs likely struggling to reach the 50s(F) further southeast. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Rain chances will return Thursday night as the first in a series of upper level troughs cross the Central Plains. As this upper wave crosses western Kansas there will be a chance for showers and possibly even a few isolated thunderstorms Thursday night. As this upper wave passes some warmer temperatures are expected to return Friday and Saturday. This minor warmup however will not last long and as another round of colder air is expected to return late this weekend. Temperatures near 60 will be possible in parts of western Kansas Friday and Saturday but then highs Sunday and Monday are expected to once again be confined to the 40s behind our weekend cold front. There may be some light snow on Sunday but at this time the probability for snow based on the latest model runs still appears small. Rain chances however continue to look likely for much of western Kansas this weekend. Over the weekend the next upper level trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies on Saturday to the Central Plains on Sunday. Moisture and lift ahead of this upper level trough will result in improving chances for precipitation, especially Saturday night and Sunday as a surface cold front crosses western Kansas. As this upper level trough crosses the Central Plains on Sunday and colder air returns to western Kansas behind this cold front there will be a chance for the rain mixing with or even changing to snow before ending. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 MVFR cigs will linger in the vicinity of all TAF sites this afternoon as low level stratus continues to slowly lift across the region. VFR conditions are then expected to return to all TAF sites this evening through the overnight hours. Northerly winds 5 to 15kt will persist across southwest and central Kansas this afternoon as surface high pressure remains situated across eastern Montana southward into eastern Wyoming. Winds are then expected to become light and variable this evening as the surface high spreads further southward into western Kansas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 54 35 49 42 / 0 0 10 60 GCK 50 33 45 41 / 0 10 10 50 EHA 50 36 50 46 / 0 10 20 30 LBL 52 38 50 45 / 0 10 10 30 HYS 50 31 48 40 / 10 0 0 90 P28 57 38 53 45 / 0 0 0 70 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ045-046-063- 064-074>078. Freeze Warning from 2 AM CDT /1 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Thursday for KSZ030-031-043-044-061-062. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJohnson LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...JJohnson