632 FXUS63 KDDC 101707 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1207 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 930 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, high pressure extends southward across the high plains of eastern Montana into eastern Wyoming. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Morning clouds will give way to some afternoon sunshine as a surface ridge builds across western Kansas. By late day an area of low pressure will be developing over extreme southeast Colorado as the next upper level disturbance moves into the Central Rockies from the west. A surface boundary will extend from this developing surface low into the panhandle of Texas. Warm air advection/isentropic lift will begin to develop across southwest Kansas tonight which should result in some increasing clouds during the overnight hours. Highs today based on the 900mb to 850mb temperatures late day are expected to climb back into the 50s across western and central Kansas. Highs will range from the upper 50s in south central Kansas to the lower 50s along the i-70 corridor. Tonight the increasing clouds across portions of southwest and south central Kansas are expected to keep the lows up a few degrees more than further north. Lows near the Oklahoma border are expected to be upper 30s. Areas of frost will be possible late tonight north of the Arkansas river where temperatures are expected to bottom out in the low to mid 30s. Temperatures near the freezing mark will be most likely along and north of a Garden City to Larned line. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Rain chances will return Thursday night as the first in a series of upper level troughs cross the Central Plains. As this upper wave crosses western Kansas there will be a chance for showers and possibly even a few isolated thunderstorms Thursday night. As this upper wave passes some warmer temperatures are expected to return Friday and Saturday. This minor warmup however will not last long and as another round of colder air is expected to return late this weekend. Temperatures near 60 will be possible in parts of western Kansas Friday and Saturday but then highs Sunday and Monday are expected to once again be confined to the 40s behind our weekend cold front. There may be some light snow on Sunday but at this time the probability for snow based on the latest model runs still appears small. Rain chances however continue to look likely for much of western Kansas this weekend. Over the weekend the next upper level trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies on Saturday to the Central Plains on Sunday. Moisture and lift ahead of this upper level trough will result in improving chances for precipitation, especially Saturday night and Sunday as a surface cold front crosses western Kansas. As this upper level trough crosses the Central Plains on Sunday and colder air returns to western Kansas behind this cold front there will be a chance for the rain mixing with or even changing to snow before ending. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 MVFR cigs will linger in the vicinity of all TAF sites this afternoon as low level stratus continues to slowly lift across the region. VFR conditions are then expected to return to all TAF sites this evening through the overnight hours. Northerly winds 5 to 15kt will persist across southwest and central Kansas this afternoon as surface high pressure remains situated across eastern Montana southward into eastern Wyoming. Winds are then expected to become light and variable this evening as the surface high spreads further southward into western Kansas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 54 35 49 43 / 0 0 10 60 GCK 50 33 45 40 / 0 10 10 50 EHA 50 36 50 46 / 0 10 20 30 LBL 52 38 50 45 / 0 10 10 30 HYS 50 31 48 41 / 10 0 0 80 P28 57 38 53 46 / 0 0 0 70 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ045-046-063- 064-074>078. Freeze Warning from 2 AM CDT /1 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Thursday for KSZ030-031-043-044-061-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJohnson SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...JJohnson