433 FXUS63 KDDC 101006 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 506 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Morning clouds will give way to some afternoon sunshine as a surface ridge builds across western Kansas. By late day an area of low pressure will be developing over extreme southeast Colorado as the next upper level disturbance moves into the Central Rockies from the west. A surface boundary will extend from this developing surface low into the panhandle of Texas. Warm air advection/isentropic lift will begin to develop across southwest Kansas tonight which should result in some increasing clouds during the overnight hours. Highs today based on the 900mb to 850mb temperatures late day are expected to climb back into the 50s across western and central Kansas. Highs will range from the upper 50s in south central Kansas to the lower 50s along the i-70 corridor. Tonight the increasing clouds across portions of southwest and south central Kansas are expected to keep the lows up a few degrees more than further north. Lows near the Oklahoma border are expected to be upper 30s. Areas of frost will be possible late tonight north of the Arkansas river where temperatures are expected to bottom out in the low to mid 30s. Temperatures near the freezing mark will be most likely along and north of a Garden City to Larned line. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Rain chances will return Thursday night as the first in a series of upper level troughs cross the Central Plains. As this upper wave crosses western Kansas there will be a chance for showers and possibly even a few isolated thunderstorms Thursday night. As this upper wave passes some warmer temperatures are expected to return Friday and Saturday. This minor warmup however will not last long and as another round of colder air is expected to return late this weekend. Temperatures near 60 will be possible in parts of western Kansas Friday and Saturday but then highs Sunday and Monday are expected to once again be confined to the 40s behind our weekend cold front. There may be some light snow on Sunday but at this time the probability for snow based on the latest model runs still appears small. Rain chances however continue to look likely for much of western Kansas this weekend. Over the weekend the next upper level trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies on Saturday to the Central Plains on Sunday. Moisture and lift ahead of this upper level trough will result in improving chances for precipitation, especially Saturday night and Sunday as a surface cold front crosses western Kansas. As this upper level trough crosses the Central Plains on Sunday and colder air returns to western Kansas behind this cold front there will be a chance for the rain mixing with or even changing to snow before ending. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 505 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Gusty northwest winds at near 15 knots this morning will decrease to around 10 knots early this afternoon as a surface ridge axis builds into western Kansas. Satellite and surface observations at 10z indicate that the latest BUFR NAM and RAP was on the right track with improving ceilings just before skies clear between 12z and 15z. Clouds will be on the increase early tonight. Ceilings from these clouds early tonight will be at or above 3500 ft AGL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 55 35 50 43 / 0 10 10 60 GCK 53 34 46 40 / 0 10 10 50 EHA 56 37 52 46 / 0 10 20 30 LBL 56 38 51 45 / 0 10 10 30 HYS 52 31 49 41 / 10 0 0 80 P28 58 39 55 46 / 0 0 0 70 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ044-063- 075>077-084>087. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ045-046-063- 064-074>078. Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for KSZ043-061-062-074. Freeze Warning from 2 AM CDT /1 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Thursday for KSZ030-031-043-044-061-062. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert