105 FXUS63 KDDC 100530 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1230 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 123 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 The synoptic trof that has brought days of rains with significant rainfall has finally started to move out of the region. Rain and clouds will exit the FA through this evening from the south to the north. A ridge of high pressure will build in its wake. There will be weak cold air advection associated with this. Do have a freeze warning for 4 counties across the NW. Main fly in the ointment for this is cloud cover. Models do show partial clear and with weak CAA in place, temperatures could get near freezing. The area that is in the freeze warning is just climo for their first freeze and along low lying areas such as near the Ark river basin. Otherwise, lows to the east should be warmer with additional/lingering cloud cover. For Wednesday, high pressure will be in control and the area should dry out. Highs should be mainly in the 50s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 123 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Will have to watch for the freezing potential for Thursday morning. High pressure is just to our north and winds are weaker. In addition, not much in the way of clouds are expected through the overnight period. A large area of the NW and N zones may get close to freezing. Will defer a headline for now as we have hydro concerns and freezing concerns already during the short term period. The GFS and EC disagree with the slight chance of showers on Thursday. A better chance at precip is still indicated by long range models next weekend. Here the synoptic wave driving the weather is strong than compared to the Thursday system. In addition, there is more in the way of boundary layer moisture as well. The EC does have cold enough 850-hPa temperatures for some mixed precipitation and even snow on Sunday. Confidence in the thermal fields is low at this point. The EC is still advertising cold air moving in the wake of the system and a freeze or even a hard freeze may be possible Monday morning for much of the FA. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Drier air will return to western Kansas overnight as a surface ridge builds into Western High Plains, and an upper level disturbance lifts northeast into Nebraska. RAP and NAM BUFR soundings does indicate some lingering low level moisture will be present through 15z Wednesday in the 1000 to 2500 ft AGL level. Ceilings are expected to improve some overnight but given the low level moisture forecast at 12z Wednesday will keep MVFR ceilings, and even a period of IFR ceilings, going through 12z Wednesday. These low clouds are expected to give way to clearing skies after daybreak. The winds will be northwest at 10 to 15 knots overnight and Wednesday.. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 35 55 36 53 / 10 0 10 0 GCK 34 53 34 50 / 20 0 10 10 EHA 33 56 36 55 / 20 0 10 20 LBL 34 56 36 54 / 10 0 10 10 HYS 36 52 32 50 / 40 10 0 0 P28 41 58 40 57 / 10 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for KSZ043-061-062-074. Frost Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ044-063- 075>077-084>087. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sugden LONG TERM...Sugden AVIATION...Burgert