869 FXUS63 KDDC 100012 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 712 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 ...updated aviation section... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 123 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 The synoptic trof that has brought days of rains with significant rainfall has finally started to move out of the region. Rain and clouds will exit the FA through this evening from the south to the north. A ridge of high pressure will build in its wake. There will be weak cold air advection associated with this. Do have a freeze warning for 4 counties across the NW. Main fly in the ointment for this is cloud cover. Models do show partial clear and with weak CAA in place, temperatures could get near freezing. The area that is in the freeze warning is just climo for their first freeze and along low lying areas such as near the Ark river basin. Otherwise, lows to the east should be warmer with additional/lingering cloud cover. For Wednesday, high pressure will be in control and the area should dry out. Highs should be mainly in the 50s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 123 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Will have to watch for the freezing potential for Thursday morning. High pressure is just to our north and winds are weaker. In addition, not much in the way of clouds are expected through the overnight period. A large area of the NW and N zones may get close to freezing. Will defer a headline for now as we have hydro concerns and freezing concerns already during the short term period. The GFS and EC disagree with the slight chance of showers on Thursday. A better chance at precip is still indicated by long range models next weekend. Here the synoptic wave driving the weather is strong than compared to the Thursday system. In addition, there is more in the way of boundary layer moisture as well. The EC does have cold enough 850-hPa temperatures for some mixed precipitation and even snow on Sunday. Confidence in the thermal fields is low at this point. The EC is still advertising cold air moving in the wake of the system and a freeze or even a hard freeze may be possible Monday morning for much of the FA. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Marginal ceiling improvement is forecast by the HRRR over the next few hours, generally through mid evening - however little improvement over that will be seen until well after midnight. Therefore we can expect the IFR category ceilings through around 03 UTC with rain showers dwindling as the Missouri Valley surface low lifts northeast and MVFR category ceilings. An intrusion of drier air aided by downslope will lead to removal of the widespread stratus during the overnight with some scattered 1500-3000 ft clouds lingering mainly in the HYS area by 12 UTC. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 35 55 35 53 / 10 0 10 0 GCK 34 53 33 50 / 20 0 10 10 EHA 33 56 35 55 / 20 0 10 20 LBL 34 56 34 54 / 10 0 10 10 HYS 36 52 31 50 / 40 0 0 0 P28 41 58 40 57 / 10 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 2 AM CDT /1 AM MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Wednesday for KSZ043-061-062-074. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ044-063- 075>077-084>087. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sugden LONG TERM...Sugden AVIATION...Russell