224 FXUS63 KDDC 091823 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 123 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 ...updated discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 123 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 The synoptic trof that has brought days of rains with significant rainfall has finally started to move out of the region. Rain and clouds will exit the FA through this evening from the south to the north. A ridge of high pressure will build in its wake. There will be weak cold air advection associated with this. Do have a freeze warning for 4 counties across the NW. Main fly in the ointment for this is cloud cover. Models do show partial clear and with weak CAA in place, temperatures could get near freezing. The area that is in the freeze warning is just climo for their first freeze and along low lying areas such as near the Ark river basin. Otherwise, lows to the east should be warmer with additional/lingering cloud cover. For Wednesday, high pressure will be in control and the area should dry out. Highs should be mainly in the 50s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 123 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Will have to watch for the freezing potential for Thursday morning. High pressure is just to our north and winds are weaker. In addition, not much in the way of clouds are expected through the overnight period. A large area of the NW and N zones may get close to freezing. Will defer a headline for now as we have hydro concerns and freezing concerns already during the short term period. The GFS and EC disagree with the slight chance of showers on Thursday. A better chance at precip is still indicated by long range models next weekend. Here the synoptic wave driving the weather is strong than compared to the Thursday system. In addition, there is more in the way of boundary layer moisture as well. The EC does have cold enough 850-hPa temperatures for some mixed precipitation and even snow on Sunday. Confidence in the thermal fields is low at this point. The EC is still advertising cold air moving in the wake of the system and a freeze or even a hard freeze may be possible Monday morning for much of the FA. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 MVFR/IFR flight conditions will improve to VFR later this evening as the storm system exits the region. Showers will continue to move out of the area through this afternoon with KHYS clearing last. Otherwise, winds will be NW/N 15-30 kt decreasing 10-20 kt later tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 47 35 55 35 / 100 10 0 10 GCK 44 34 53 33 / 100 20 0 10 EHA 46 33 56 35 / 90 10 0 10 LBL 49 34 56 34 / 80 10 0 10 HYS 45 36 52 31 / 100 40 0 0 P28 63 41 58 40 / 100 10 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...C Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ030-031-045-046- 064>066-079-081-090. Freeze Warning from 2 AM CDT /1 AM MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Wednesday for KSZ043-061-062-074. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sugden LONG TERM...Sugden AVIATION...Sugden