049 FXUS61 KCTP 111402 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1002 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the Commonwealth today and will meet up with tropical moisture to produce locally heavy downpours. The rainfall remnants of now Tropical Storm Michael will track mainly south of Pennsylvania. Cooler and drier conditions will arrive for Friday and the upcoming weekend. A prolonged period of below normal temperatures is then in store. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... NAM and family are working out very nicely as stripes of very intense/tropical rainfall/rates are crossing thru the area right now. Some local gages are picking up just under an inch in an hour or less. Thanksfully, these elemants are moving along quickly. Will need to watch for possible minor flood problems. Cold front is into Warren County and may be into McKean Co by the time I am done typing. Strato cu extends very far back into the northern plains states with only minor breaks near Chicago- land - likely with a secondary push of drier air. Forecast looks in good condition. Have tweaked timing for the very near term to reflect the end time of the rain and wind shift. Prev... Moderate showers now cover much of the Central and South Central Mountains, ahead of a cold front pushing into western PA. Rich deep layer moisture lies across PA...with a plume of 2"+ PW lingering through the midday hours across the central mountains, and through late afternoon/evening over the far SE zones. WPC continues MRGL Excessive Rainfall threat for the southeast third of central PA, but the heavy rain remnants from now Tropical Storm Michael will stay south of PA. The aforementioned cold front will puish into far wrn PA shortly after sunrise, then slow its eastern progress as the much weakened TS Michael moves across East- Central NC. Overall rainfall amounts will range from around a half inch over the northwest to 1.5" over the southeast. NAM, Hi- Res ARW and NMM place the best chance of convection right thru the middle of the CWA running from Mansfield to Somerset thru the morning. Will have to see if new warm min records are set for this last warm muggy night. Warmest mins for Oct 11 area as follows: KAOO 65 in 1970 KBFD 55 in 2017 KIPT 64 in 1913 KMDT 65 in 1914 Winds will shift to the west as the front passes with a drastic drying to the air over the NW by the end of the day. Precip might be over by 18Z in the NW third-half of the area, and by 21Z over all but Lancaster and srn York Counties. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Much cooler air whisks into the region tonight on strong northwest flow behind the remnant circulation of Michael exiting southeast VA late tonight into the predawn hours Friday. Any lingering showers end early this evening, but there could be a few lake effect rain showers over the northwest mountains as the colder air arrives. Extensive lake clouds will cover the north and west in typical lake effect regime, while the southeast downslopes and enjoys partial clearing by Friday morning and a good amount of sunshine throughout the day. After so many days of above normal temperatures, highs in the upper 40s northwest and upper 50s southeast will feel downright chilly/or refreshing depending upon one's point of view. It is nearly mid October after all. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... *Significant cool-down expected by Friday as a more typical fall weather pattern finally takes hold into next week A significant pattern change will set in as the extended summer pattern will come to an end with all signs pointing toward noticeably cooler, more typical fall weather lasting into next week. After one of the warmest starts to October on record, the upcoming period of seasonably cooler weather with near to below average temperatures will feel rather chilly this weekend and next week. Parts of the northwest Alleghenies may see frost Sunday morning. Sub-zero air at 850mb crossing the lower lakes should result in rain showers (perhaps the seasons first flakes?) over the NW Allegheny Plateau and Fri-Sat. Model consensus shows the next rain-maker impacting the area early next week, with weak cold frontal passages expected Monday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 12Z TAFS sent. Area of rain expanding, as cold front nears. Expect a wide range of conditions this morning. Conditions have been good much of the night, but will likely come down some. Still expect improvement late today. Another frontal system will bring some rain to the area late Friday night into Saturday. Summer weather over for now, most likely until next spring. .Outlook... Sat...MVFR cigs possible NW. Sun-Mon...AM valley fog psbl...otherwise no sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Lambert NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir LONG TERM...Gartner/Steinbugl AVIATION...Martin