908 FXUS61 KCTP 101906 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 306 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... After one more muggy night, a cold front will move through the area Thursday and could produce some locally heavy rain. The rainfall remnants of Hurricane Michael should track mainly south of Pennsylvania. Cooler and drier conditions will arrive for Friday and the upcoming weekend. A prolonged period of below normal temperatures is then in store. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Some moderate cu out there this aftn. Thus, we will hold onto the very small chcs of a shower in the fcst for the next few hours. Temps into the 80s in the S with clouds moving in. The south wind will also help to keep the overnight temps up and dewpoints rising slightly through the night. Mins may again be higher than they have ever been (Maxi-mins). Radar returns over WV are reaching the ground in a few places. This stuff should break up somewhat as it moves into wrn PA where cu is lacking and air is drier in the lower layers. But, it will pivot around and slide into our north- central counties around midnight. The cold front pushes into wrn PA overnight, reaching and perhaps pushing east of KBFD by sunrise. Precip over the NW looks light, generally just a quarter of an inch. However, thunder is possible across the rest of the area, mainly along a pre-frontal trough. NAM, Hi-Res ARW and NMM place the best chance of convection right thru the middle of the CWA running from Mansfield to Somerset thru the morning. NAM much higher with the QPF than the GFS and HREF, though. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... *Locally Heavy downpours and localized flooding possible Thursday. The PWATs remain well above normals, peaking about 2.25" during the day on Thurs over Lancaster County. There will be some heavy downpours in the sct thunderstorms embedded in the wider area of showers. In general, we would need to have some training of storms to make flash flooding in this scenario. While this is certainly possible, we are not confident enough in placement of the heaviest rain to post a flood watch at this point. NAM keeps the heaviest of the QPF over our central counties around sunrise, then another max occurs near or off to the southeast of Lancaster Co during the day. The wind will shift to the west as the front passes with a drastic drying to the air over the NW by the end of the day. Precip might be over by 18Z in the NW third-half of the area, and by 21Z over all but Lancaster and srn York Cos. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... *Significant cool-down expected by Friday as a more typical fall weather pattern finally takes hold into next week A significant pattern change is expected to follow in the wake of Michael as it accelerates away from the southern Mid Atlantic coast on Friday. The extended summer pattern will come to an end with all signs pointing toward noticeably cooler, more typical fall weather lasting into next week. After one of the warmest starts to October on record, the upcoming period of seasonably cooler weather with near to below average temperatures will feel rather chilly this weekend and next week. Parts of the northwest Alleghenies may see frost Sunday morning. Sub-zero air at 850mb crossing the lower lakes should result in rain showers (perhaps the seasons first flakes?) over the NW Allegheny Plateau and Fri-Sat. Model consensus shows the next rain-maker impacting the area early next week. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR now will start to deteriorate this evening, but probably crash hard before midnight in many locations. Have mentioned PROB30 for thunder in a broad time frame later tonight in many places, and through all the last 6 hrs (12-18Z) in the SE. The wind will not change appreciably through the night, but veer slightly through the latter half of the night. The front will move through BFD around or just after sunrise. Then, steadily cross the area through the daylight hrs. Strato cu moves in from the northwest after a brief dry slot/clearing behind the front. It should cover much of the area Friday and NW winds could gust into the 20s. Classic October. .Outlook... Sat...MVFR cigs possible NW. Sun-Mon...AM valley fog psbl...otherwise no sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Dangelo