672 FXUS61 KCTP 101539 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1139 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A strong ridge of high pressure will remain just off the Mid Atlantic coast into tonight. A cold front will move through the area Thursday, with the remnants of Hurricane Michael tracking south of Pennsylvania. Cooler and drier conditions will arrive for Friday and the upcoming weekend. A prolonged period of below normal temperatures is then in store. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... Stratus now a mix of strato cu and convective/diurnal cu. While radar is quiet right now, there is the small possibility of a convective shower pop up along the higher terrain, but move rapidly northward. So, any of these tall cu will leave it's place of origin and best lift quickly - and likely die quickly. Will continue to carry 20 PoPs for the higher terrain of the warmer locales. Overall, no huge changes, just very minor tweaks. Prev... GOES nighttime microphysics imagery shows stratus covering all but Warren County early today, thanks to SE boundary layer flow advecting higher dewpoint air across central PA. Mostly thin cirrus is streaming ENE across portions of western and central PA. Where the stratus is most prominent, there could be patchy drizzle, mainly over my southeast counties early this morning. Chance of measurable precipitation is 10 percent or below. Morning clouds and areas of fog will burn off by around midday giving way to at least a partly sunny, warm and muggy afternoon, quite similar to Tuesday. There could be an isolated shower this afternoon as upper ridge loses its stabilizing influence on the region. Highs once again will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... *Locally Heavy downpours and localized flooding possible Thursday. Thursday Shower chances begin to ramp up tonight as a surge in deep layer moisture arrives into southwest PA by this evening. 2.0" PW overspreads the Laurel Highlands and South Central mountains this evening and then lifts across the southeastern half of PA overnight. A cold front approaching the Commonwealth from the eastern GLAKS and Ohio Valley will provide more than enough forcing for several periods of showers and a few thunderstorms overnight and through the day on Thursday. Much of southeast portion of central PA remains in MRGL risk of excessive rainfall on Thursday as a result, with the main heavy rain impacts from the remnants of Michael staying south of PA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... *Significant cool-down expected by Friday as a more typical fall weather pattern finally takes hold into next week A significant pattern change is expected to follow in the wake of Michael as it accelerates away from the southern Mid Atlantic coast on Friday. The extended summer pattern will come to an end with all signs pointing toward noticeably cooler, more typical fall weather lasting into next week. After one of the warmest starts to October on record, the upcoming period of seasonably cooler weather with near to below average temperatures will feel rather chilly this weekend and next week. Parts of the northwest Alleghenies may see frost Sunday morning. Sub-zero air at 850mb crossing the lower lakes should result in rain showers (perhaps the seasons first flakes?) over the NW Allegheny Plateau and Fri-Sat. Model consensus shows the next rain-maker impacting the area early next week. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Stratus no longer continuous and is higher-based due to the mixing of the day. These should continue to rise and most/all terminals should rise to VFR by 18Z. Just a very very slight chc of a shower this aftn as some of the cu may grow tall, but the chc is so small that no mention will be made in the TAFs. Earlier... MVFR vis/cigs will trend to VFR into the afternoon before going lower again tonight into Thursday morning. Showers will develop from west to east late tonight with periods of rain across the entire airspace Thursday. Low ceilings and lingering showers are likely to persist across the western airspace Thursday night into Friday morning. .Outlook... Thu...MVFR-IFR cigs/LLWS early becoming MVFR/VFR. Showers/isolated T-storms accompanying a cold front. Post- frontal low cigs developing northwest mtns Thursday night-Friday morning. Fri...MVFR cigs possible NW. Wind gusts 20-25kts from NW. Sat...MVFR cigs possible NW. Sun...No Sig Wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir/Lambert SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Dangelo/Steinbugl