221 FXUS61 KCTP 100054 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 854 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A strong ridge of high pressure will remain parked off the Mid Atlantic coast through Wednesday. A cold front will move through the area Thursday. Hurricane Michael is expected to hit the Florida Panhandle tomorrow and then turn sharply northeastward on a track off the east coast south of Pennsylvania. Cooler and drier conditions will arrive for Friday and the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Evening GOES-16 IR FOG product (10.3-3.9um) shows a fair amounts of cirrus spreading NE across the region with several areas of shallow stratocu clouds across our far eastern zones, where mean sfc-925 mb streamlines were advecting moisture with u60s to l70S DEWPOINTS off the Western Atlantic and Chesapeake Bay. lATEST 09/23z RAP LLVL RH fields shows stratocu deck lowering into a stratus deck and spreading north-northwest across our the region to blanket most of the CW outside of portions of Mckean and Warren counties, and Cambria/Somerset counties west of Laurel Ridge. With the return of the low clouds overnight, we could see some patchy drizzle develop over eastern sections, but no real measurable precipitation is expected at this time. The clouds and light southerly flow at the sfc will create another muggy night. Lows in the 60s will average around 20 deg above normal. Some maxi min records in the upper 50s to mid 60s are on target to be broken. The record warm low at KBFD of 57F looks to be the most susceptible to be broken, considering the current dewpoint of 64F there, and a fcst min of only 61F. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Wednesday looks like it will be very similar to the last several days. Morning clouds and patchy fog burning off to a partly sunny afternoon. Highs once again will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... *Heavy downpours and localized flooding possible Thursday *Significant cool-down expected by Friday as a more typical fall weather pattern finally takes hold into next week Periods of locally heavy rain are likely on Thursday as a cold front crosses the Appalachians and interacts with tropical moisture from Michael. PW values are forecast to reach 1.5 to 2.0 inches which is well-above normal for early/mid October. Blend of NBM/WPC QPF yields 1-2 inches over the southeastern 1/3 of the CWA falling mainly in the 12-hr window ending 00Z Friday. Very soggy soils and swollen streams from relentless rainfall over the last several months will make this area susceptible to potential flooding concerns. The WPC D3 excessive rainfall outlook (ERO) places southeast PA in a marginal risk. The models are in general agreement in keeping the heaviest rains directly associated with Michael from the NC piedmont across southeast VA to the Delmarva Peninsula Thursday night into Friday. There is some uncertainty in the max QPF location and timing with at least some risk that it could track or shift farther north, but for now the most likely outcome is a southern track with the main impacts staying south/east of central PA. A significant pattern change is expected to follow in the wake of Michael as it accelerates away from the southern Mid Atlantic coast on Friday. The extended summer pattern will come to an end with all signs pointing toward noticeably cooler, more typical fall weather lasting into next week. After one of the warmest starts to October on record, the upcoming period of seasonably cooler weather with near to below average temperatures will feel rather chilly this weekend and next week. Parts of the northwest Alleghenies may see frost Sunday morning. Sub-zero air at 850mb crossing the lower lakes should result in rain showers (perhaps the seasons first flakes?) over the NW Allegheny Plateau and Fri-Sat. Model consensus shows the next rain-maker impacting the area early next week. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... All terminals have lifted to VFR as of early afternoon and will continue into the early evening hours before we start to see a return of low clouds and areas of patchy fog. Expect widespread MVFR/IFR after midnight lasting through mid morning Wednesday. Conditions will improve by Wednesday PM once again. .Outlook... Thu...MVFR-IFR cigs becoming MVFR/VFR. Showers/isolated T-storms accompanying a cold front. Post-frontal low cigs developing northwest 1/4 Thursday night-Friday morning. Fri-Sat...MVFR cigs possible NW. Wind gusts 20-25kts from 300-330 degrees Friday. Sun...No Sig Wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...La Corte