121 FXUS64 KCRP 111534 AAB AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1034 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .DISCUSSION...Although the frontal boundary has pushed through deep South Texas into northeast Mexico, moisture axis remains position along the Rio Grande. Isentropic lift in the 300-310K layer will continue over the Brush Country where isolated to scattered convection will be possible through the day. && .MARINE...Northeast winds are a little stronger this morning over the coastal waters with SCEC conditions area wide. This will continue into the evening hours as winds veer to easterly. Seas will remain in the range of 4 to 5 feet over the Gulf waters. && .TIDES...Tide levels are running around 1-1.2 feet above expected as we go toward low tide. Bay levels are running 1.5-2 feet above expected and remaining around 2 feet. P-ETSS continues to show tide levels will remain elevated for the next high tide with water levels up to 2.5 feet MSL. The Coastal Flood Advisory will continue for tonight. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 656 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018/ DISCUSSION... Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion. Also, made correction in short term AFD to say "conditionally" unstable lapse rates. AVIATION... Isolated to scattered SHRA activity developing along a weak boundary situated just south of the TAF sites. A few TSTMs will be possible, especially along and south of the boundary, but should weaken, becoming mostly shower activity, once they move north of the boundary and into drier territory. This activity should mainly affect the LRD through much of the day, but will continue to monitor trends should development begin to push farther east. MVFR/IFR CIGs expected toward LRD where greatest isentropic lifting is occurring, with generally VFR elsewhere. Gradual lift in the CIGs at LRD are expected but remain BKN around 3500 FT for much of the TAF period. NE-ly winds 10-15KT expected today, with gradual shift out of the E this afternoon (exception at VCT which should maintain NE flow through TAF period). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 84 72 87 74 87 / 10 10 10 10 20 Victoria 83 63 85 69 86 / 0 0 10 10 10 Laredo 84 71 88 74 90 / 40 20 20 20 20 Alice 85 69 88 72 89 / 10 10 10 10 20 Rockport 83 72 84 76 85 / 0 10 10 10 10 Cotulla 82 67 86 72 88 / 30 10 10 20 20 Kingsville 85 71 88 74 89 / 20 10 10 10 20 Navy Corpus 83 75 85 78 86 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. High Rip Current Risk through this evening For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. GM...None. && $$ TMT/89...SHORT TERM