237 FXUS64 KCRP 111156 AAA AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 656 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .DISCUSSION... Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion. Also, made correction in short term AFD to say "conditionally" unstable lapse rates. && .AVIATION... Isolated to scattered SHRA activity developing along a weak boundary situated just south of the TAF sites. A few TSTMs will be possible, especially along and south of the boundary, but should weaken, becoming mostly shower activity, once they move north of the boundary and into drier territory. This activity should mainly affect the LRD through much of the day, but will continue to monitor trends should development begin to push farther east. MVFR/IFR CIGs expected toward LRD where greatest isentropic lifting is occurring, with generally VFR elsewhere. Gradual lift in the CIGs at LRD are expected but remain BKN around 3500 FT for much of the TAF period. NE-ly winds 10-15KT expected today, with gradual shift out of the E this afternoon (exception at VCT which should maintain NE flow through TAF period). && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 442 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018/ SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)... LAPS analysis shows surface high pressure sinking farther south into South Texas with drier air to the north (PWATs of <1.5 inches) and moist conditions to the south (PWATs >1.5 inches). With this weak boundary draped just across the southern CWA and northward along the Rio Grande, weak forcing along with isentropic lift will continue isolated showers and thunderstorms this morning through Friday. As these showers and thunderstorms continue to track north, they will be entering areas of drier conditions which should help weaken the activity as evident of what has already happened earlier this morning. However, due to conditionally unstable lapse rates in the mid levels, a few storms that approach the Rio Grande may become strong at times with gusty winds and small hail before the storms weaken. Temperatures will still be warm, but a few degrees less overall compared to yesterday. Highs are expected to rise into the low to mid 80s today, then into the mid to upper 80s Friday. Tonight, temperatures should again dip into the 60s across the much of the inland areas, with lows in the low to mid 70s along the coast and along the Rio Grande. MARINE... Long period swells and astronomical high tide will continue tides reaching 2.0 to 2.5 feet during periods of high tide. Long period swells will also continue the high risk of rip currents along gulf-facing beaches. Some good news is on the way as long period swells are expected to gradually decrease late tonight and beyond. This will lead to the high risk of rip currents to drop a category to a moderate risk of rip currents into Friday. However, with the astronomical high tide, minor coastal flooding may continue into the early weekend. LONG TERM (Friday night through Wednesday)... Deterministic output predicts an upper disturbance to move across the Midwest/NERN CONUS Friday night/Saturday, while another system enters the NRN Rockies/NRN Plains from Canada then splits. The NRN branch moves across the NRN Plains/Midwest Sunday/Sunday night and contributes to a cold front, while the SRN branch develops across the SRN Rockies. The front is predicted to move across the CWA Sunday night/Monday morning. Anticipate SCA conditions Monday over the MSA after frontal passage. Both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic output depicts much cooler conditions over the CWA Monday/Tuesday. The foregoing SRN branch upper disturbance moves EWD across the Plains Monday/Tuesday, yet the GFS and ECMWF diverge with respect to the latitude of the system with the GFS further south, resulting in a significant secondary surge of drier air Wednesday over the CWA/MSA, while the ECMWF maintains moist conditions over the CWA/MSA Wednesday. Both solutions develop a cutoff low near the Four Corners Region. The GFS depicts a subtropical jet east of this low positioned to provide synoptic scale lift to the CWA Tuesday/ Wednesday. Expect isolated convection over the CWA Saturday owing to sufficient moisture/instability. Expect the cold front to trigger scattered convection Sunday/Monday. Finally, the foregoing subtropical jet may contribute to additional convection Tuesday/ Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 84 72 87 74 87 / 10 10 10 10 20 Victoria 83 63 85 69 86 / 0 0 10 10 10 Laredo 84 71 88 74 90 / 40 20 20 20 20 Alice 85 69 88 72 89 / 10 10 10 10 20 Rockport 83 72 84 76 85 / 0 10 10 10 10 Cotulla 82 67 86 72 88 / 20 10 10 20 20 Kingsville 85 71 88 74 89 / 20 10 10 10 20 Navy Corpus 83 75 85 78 86 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. High Rip Current Risk through this evening For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. GM...None. && $$ CB/85...AVIATION