563 FXUS64 KCRP 102345 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 645 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .DISCUSSION... Updated for 00Z aviation discussion. && .AVIATION... Behind yesterday's cold front will continue a relatively quiet forecast. VFR conditions are in the forecast for all sites. There is still a slight chance some fog could develop and impact interior locations...however wind speeds should be high enough to likely keep fog from forming. There is a very small chance for showers at LRD on Thursday, but too small to include in TAF at this point. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 317 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)... Surface high pressure will continue to settle into South Texas tonight and will remain over the area on Thursday with mostly clear skies and light northeast-east winds. Main forecast challenge is whether fog will form late tonight across inland areas. NAM and GFS MOS guidance no longer indicates fog, when NAM showed it showed it previously over VCT. Will keep it out for now and let the evening shift evaluate again. Next S/W will approach South Texas on Thursday which draws return of low level moisture up along the Rio Grande. Thus skies will become mostly cloudy on Thursday in the SW parts of the CWA. Also maintained slight chance of warm advection type showers along the Rio Grande for Thu/Thu Night. Concerning the Coastal Flood Threat, drone flyover along beaches of North Padre Island by the Corpus Christi Fire Dept around midday today, during low tide, revealed Moderate Coastal Flooding with water reaching the dunes and beach access roads. Rip currents were also observed. With high tide approaching this afternoon/evening and offshore buoys still reporting 8 ft swells with 13 second periods, expect highest water levels of the event to occur this aftn and evening. Water levels could approach or exceed 3 ft MSL. Beyond Tonight, tide levels will remain elevated with a deep easterly fetch developing across the NW gulf. Thus its likely that the threat of minor coastal flooding will persist for a few days. Marine...large swells will continue over the gulf waters through the evening before conditions begin to improve. Thus will maintain SCA's through 10pm. Ocean conditions improve on Thursday as Hurricane Michael has already made landfall in FL Peninsula. LONG TERM (Friday through Tuesday)... Extended period begins with return flow underway as moisture begins to rebuild into the Coastal Bend out ahead of the next in a series of upper disturbances. Rain chances re-enter the forecast out west Friday night and overspread the CWA Saturday and Saturday night. Models becoming a little more consistent in bringing a significant cold front through late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening. Models then keep low level moisture around, with the ECMWF more aggressive in developing a coastal trough and maintaining precip chances, while GFS is spottier with moisture and rainfall possibilities. Strong offshore flow in the wake of the front will likely create hazardous boating conditions for the next day or so after frontal passage. The big news for the last part of the extended will be temperatures. Highs behind the front the first part of next week will only be in the 60s and 70s, with lows in the 50s inland Tuesday and just a few degrees warmer on Wednesday morning. MARINE... && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 69 84 70 86 74 / 10 10 10 10 10 Victoria 63 83 62 84 65 / 0 0 0 10 10 Laredo 69 84 69 88 73 / 10 20 20 10 20 Alice 67 84 67 87 71 / 10 10 10 10 10 Rockport 69 83 72 84 74 / 10 10 10 10 10 Cotulla 64 82 65 85 70 / 10 10 10 10 20 Kingsville 69 85 69 88 73 / 10 10 10 10 10 Navy Corpus 74 83 75 86 77 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Warning until midnight CDT tonight For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands... Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg... Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio... Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight CDT Thursday night For the following zones: Aransas Islands... Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun... Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio... Coastal San Patricio...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ PH/83...AVIATION