894 FXUS64 KCRP 101150 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 650 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .DISCUSSION... Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion. && .AVIATION... Mixture of IFR/MVFR/VFR CIGs/VSBYs this morning. LRD has become socked in and VSBYS have dropped to LIFR conditions and may hold through much of the morning before becoming VFR. Breaks in the clouds farther east toward ALI-CRP-VCT may have VSBYs fluctuate between VFR and MVFR as daybreak approaches but overall become VFR through the late morning. Northerly winds 5-10 KTs expected today with a gradual shift out of the Northeast to East during the afternoon and evening. May have enough moisture in the lowest levels to return low level clouds but for now continue to keep VFR at 2000 FT. Drier air moving in should keep dewpoint depression wide enough to hinder IFR VSBYs, but patchy fog possible. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 500 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)... The weak cold frontal boundary continues to push offshore, although LAPS analysis shows a weak boundary extending westward across the far southern Coastal Bend which may keep isolated activity over land through the morning hours before the boundary pushes farther south. Much drier conditions are expected for the afternoon as high pressure and drier air move in behind the front, shunting the available moisture farther south. May see a bump in the winds late this morning, especially over the nearshore waters, as a quick surge of high pressure moves in, with a second bump tonight. Moisture is then expected to gradually be drawn northward up through the Rio Grande Valley with slight rain chances for Thursday for the western Brush Country. Temperatures are expected to be on the warm side today under partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows should be cooler in the low to mid 60s across areas from Cotulla to Port Lavaca, and in the upper 60s to low 70s from near Laredo to along the Middle Texas Coast. MARINE... Swells and wave heights have increased dramatically yesterday evening across the Middle Texas Coastal waters all in response to Hurricane Michael in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft Advisories will continue through this evening as wave heights remain between 5 to 7 feet across the nearshore waters, and 7 to 9 feet across the offshore waters. As for the Coastal Flood Advisory and High Rip Current Risk, have extended these products through Thursday morning as swell periods continue to run high at 10-14 seconds. This combined with astronomical high tides along with a new moon have led to tides running about 1 to 1.5 feet above normal. This will lead to water covering local beaches as well as noticeable water rises in area bays. In addition, the high swell periods will continue to lead to high rip current risks along the gulf facing beaches. The Coastal Flood Advisory and High Rip Current Risk products are currently in effect through Thursday morning, but may need to be extended past Thursday morning. LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)... The ECMWF/GFS/NAM deterministic predict an upper level disturbance to move across the Plains/Midwest Thursday night through Friday night, while a flat E-W oriented upper ridge affects the Gulf of Mexico/CWA. The ECMWF/GFS predict another upper system to enter the NRN Rockies Friday night/Saturday from Canada, then move across the Plains/Midwest Sunday/Monday. The surface reflection/cold front associated with this second system is predicted to move across the CWA Sunday night/Monday. Expect increasing moisture/onshore flow expected over the CWA/MSA Friday/Saturday (ECMWF deterministic PWAT values) to contribute to at least isolated convection. Expect the chance for convection to increase Sunday/Monday owing to the proximity of the front. SCA conditions may occur over the coastal MSA after frontal passage Monday (WaveWatch III output.) Drier conditions anticipated Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 89 69 86 70 85 / 20 10 10 10 10 Victoria 87 63 84 62 83 / 10 0 0 10 10 Laredo 90 69 86 69 87 / 10 10 20 10 20 Alice 90 67 86 67 86 / 10 10 10 10 10 Rockport 87 69 84 72 83 / 20 10 10 10 10 Cotulla 88 64 84 65 84 / 10 10 10 10 10 Kingsville 91 69 87 69 87 / 20 10 10 10 10 Navy Corpus 88 74 84 75 85 / 20 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ CB/85...AVIATION