042 FXUS64 KCRP 100136 AAB AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 836 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .DISCUSSION... Quick update for convection moving slowly across the eastern portions of the CWFA. Have adjusted POPs up over the eastern areas and lowered them farther north and west. Tried to adjust Wx grids to handle the slow-moving activity. Changes also to the other needed parameters, and adjusted forecast elements for Wednesday as-needed. No changes after Wednesday for now. Updates are out. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 651 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ DISCUSSION... See .AVIATION discussion for 00Z TAFS. AVIATION... Start with the easiest one (or apparently so): VFR expected at KLRD through the period but it is possible a brief MVFR CIG may develop in the morning. Otherwise - slow-moving boundary seen on radar will provide a focus for some showers and storms this evening over the eastern terminals, before daytime heating and cap begin to end convection. Boundary is expected to stall a bit and not move through (will have to watch that as it is moving pretty good now), but think the rain should be done with by 05Z or so (at least for the terminals). Main issue after that will be the fog potential. With slow-moving boundaries and light winds, fog is often a problem especially at KVCT and KALI and have both going do to below at least IFR overnight with possible 3/4SM at both locations. For now, will not hit the KCRP terminal that hard with fog and only go with MVFR. By 15Z, all should have VFR with north winds shifting to the northeast or east late (KVCT stays relatively north) as surface high begins to shift. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 415 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)... Ongoing scattered showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous, mainly across the Victoria Crossroads, this evening as a frontal boundary pushes through S TX. The bdry is currently draped from east of LRD to Three Rivers and moving eastward. Models prog the bdry to slow down somewhat as it approaches the Coastal Bend, which looks reasonable given that convection currently over the Coastal Bend has sent an outflow bdry heading west. The airmass is very unstable and moist, thus the collision of the bdries combined with upper support ahead of a long wave trough, should enhance convection late this afternoon and evening. Some storms may become strong with gust to 30-40 mph and small hail. Can not rule out isolated severe storms along with brief heavy rainfall. Localized flooding may also become an issue this evening if the bdry slows down significantly. Models show the bdry pushing off the coast between 09-12Z. Lingering showers behind the front should diminish through Wed afternoon across the eastern 3/4th of the CWA. Models prog moisture to lift northwestward along the Rio Grande Wed afternoon and night leading to a slight chc of convection. Temps will be a tad cooler behind the front Wed and Wed night along with a weak northerly flow. MARINE... Swells from Hurricane Michael are on the increase this afternoon and will continue through tonight. Swell periods may increase to as much as 10-14 seconds. As a result, am expecting seas to range from 5 to 7 feet nearshore and 7 to 9 feet offshore. These conditions should begin to taper off by Wed evening, therefore have extended the Small Craft Advisory until Wed evening. Tide levels are running approx 2 to 2.5 feet above MSL during the times of high tide and am expecting this trend to continue through Wed. Tides and the high risk of rip currents are also expected to begin subsiding Wed evening, but may linger into Thu. For now have extended the Coastal Flood Advisory/Rip Current until Wed evening. LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday Night)... Dry conditions will persist across South Texas Thu/Fri. Then moisture increases Saturday as remnance of Sergio in the Pacific moves across North Texas, drawing a moist southerly low level flow. Expect iso/sct showers/storms Saturday through Sunday as Sergio moves east and remnant boundary settles into South Texas. Meanwhile, a deepening trough in the central plains will send the coldest air of the fall season plunging southward toward the Texas coast. Timing of this front is still uncertain. The GFS is faster than the EC and brings it through Sunday night -vs- Monday for the EC. Regardless, this front will bring a good chance of showers/storms along with cooler temperatures. Expect high temps Mon in the 60s with lows Tue morning in the 50s, except slightly warmer along the immediate coast. Small craft advisory conditions will be likely Mon/Tue due to the strong offshore flow. This cool airmass will persist across the region for several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 76 91 69 85 70 / 70 20 10 10 10 Victoria 73 88 64 84 62 / 40 10 10 10 10 Laredo 72 90 69 85 69 / 10 20 20 20 10 Alice 74 91 67 85 66 / 60 10 10 10 10 Rockport 77 87 70 83 72 / 70 20 10 10 10 Cotulla 69 89 66 84 65 / 10 10 10 10 10 Kingsville 76 91 68 86 69 / 70 20 10 10 10 Navy Corpus 78 87 74 84 75 / 60 20 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM CDT Wednesday For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands... Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg... Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio... Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands... Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Wednesday For the following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM CDT Wednesday For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM. && $$ GW/86...SHORT TERM