503 FXUS64 KCRP 091750 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1250 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion for the 18Z TAFs. && .AVIATION... Generally conditions will be at VFR levels most of the day with the exception of around SHRA/TSRAs where MVFR, possibly very brief IFR, conditions will be possible. The convection is expected to occur in 2 to 3 rounds through the TAF period. Currently convection is located across the west and across the east this afternoon. The convection across the west is expected to continue to move eastward across the Brush Country along a frontal bdry. The weak frontal bdry is expected to move south and east of S TX by late tonight into early Wed morning with drier conditions developing initially across the VCT and LRD TAF sites. Kept the mention of precip for ALI and CRP through Wed morning for lingering post frontal precip. In addition to the convection, patchy fog is expected to develop across mainly the northeast CWA as the front moves through the area late tonight. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 624 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ DISCUSSION... Note Aviation Discussion corresponding to the 12z TAFs. AVIATION... Continue to expect a mixture of MVFR/VFR prevailing conditions during the TAF period. Isolated/scattered showers early today followed by scattered/numerous showers/thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Isolated to scattered activity expected to continue tonight in advance of a weak frontal boundary. Brief MVFR visibilities may occur in advance of the front during the 10-12z Wednesday period. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 536 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)... Today...The combination of upper forcing (ECMWF/NAM predict 700-300mb Q-vector convergence associated with the upper disturbance predicted to move across the CWA) and copious moisture (NAM deterministic predict well above normal PWAT values) will contribute to at least scattered convection. 3000-4000 j/kg SBCAPE and >1000 DCAPE (NAM deterministic) suggests at least strong storms (SPC places much of the CWA in a Marginal Risk for severe.) Tonight...As the foregoing upper system lifts NEWD, a frontal boundary is predicted to enter the CWA, which may trigger additional convection. The front is expected to move somewhat slowly and patchy fog may develop over interior portions of the CWA in advance of the front. Wednesday...Much drier conditions expected due to the front passage. COASTAL/MARINE... Long period swell assoicated with Michael will continue to enter the MSA. Swell heights are expected to approach SCA criterion tonight (WaveWatch.) Swell periods may exceed 13 seconds over the coastal MSA tonight/Wednesday. The high risk for rip currents will continue today through Wednesday. Based on recent height above astronomical at Port Lavaca, Seadrift, and CC Bay (Proxy for the Bay Waters), expect near/slightly above 2 ft msl water levels over the Bays/Intercoastal Waterways today. Based on recent heights above astronomical at Bob Hall Pier and Port O'Connor, expect >2 ft msl water levels along the coast near high tide today. Will retain the CFW for minor coastal flooding and high rip current risk. LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)... Generally dry conditions are in store for South Texas through Friday in the wake of a passing weak frontal boundary across the region on Wednesday and ridging building overhead. With an increasing onshore flow, moisture returns to the area Friday night and so does the rainfall potential through the weekend. A second stronger cold front is progged to move through on Sunday with increasing rain chances. Temperatures this week will be at/or near average for the season, with highs generally in the 80s and overnight lows in the mid 60s to 70s range. Temperatures will be slightly above normal again on Saturday, before quickly falling after the frontal passage on Sunday. Cooler temperatures are expected early next week, with lows highs on Monday only forecast to reach the upper 60s. As Hurricane Michael continues to track across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, coastal impacts are expected to linger across the Middle Texas Coastal Waters through Thursday. High swells, minor coastal flooding and an increased risk for rip currents will be possible across the Gulf-facing beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 88 75 88 69 85 / 40 30 20 10 10 Victoria 87 72 87 64 84 / 70 50 10 10 10 Laredo 90 72 89 69 85 / 20 30 10 20 20 Alice 90 73 89 67 85 / 40 30 20 10 10 Rockport 86 76 86 70 83 / 50 30 20 10 10 Cotulla 87 69 88 65 83 / 50 30 10 10 10 Kingsville 91 74 90 69 86 / 30 30 20 10 10 Navy Corpus 87 78 86 74 84 / 40 30 20 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands... Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg... Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio... Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands... Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Wednesday For the following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Wednesday For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM. && $$ TE/81...AVIATION