325 FXUS61 KCLE 111400 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1000 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the area this morning. High pressure over the Plains will expand east into the area from Friday into Saturday, then to the east coast Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cold front is located just east of the area at 10 AM. Temperatures still in the mid 60s across eastern Ohio and PA will fall through the day as the colder air arrives. Showers have mostly ended aside form a stray shower in the next hour or two across NW Pa. Some breaks noted on satellite imagery across western Indiana which is similar to what is expected across western Ohio this afternoon. Previous discussion...A cold front is currently moving through western Ohio this morning and will continue to progress eastward through the morning. High temperatures for today have already occurred and temperatures will be on a slow and steady decline for much of the day with the passage of the front this morning. We will be mainly in the 50s by this afternoon with blustery conditions along with mostly cloudy skies much of the day. Cold air advection will continue tonight with overnight lows falling into the lower and middle 40s. Mildest temperatures will be closest to the lake and water. Some clearing may be possible across portions of western or central Ohio but lake effect clouds will hold on tight downwind of Lake Erie tonight through Friday. A few sprinkles of lake effect showers may be possible late tonight into Friday near the snowbelt region of Lake Erie. Otherwise temperatures will be slightly below average on Friday with highs only in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend, with dry conditions Saturday evening through Sunday bookended by widespread precip chances. Synoptic feature of note in a potent shortwave that will quickly track east across the area Friday night into Saturday. Models are fairly similar to runs 24 hours ago, with the ECMWF/NAM most bullish on widespread precip and the GFS still a little moisture starved. Have opted for likely pops across most of the area, with high likely/categorical pops across the primary snowbelt, as lake enhancement looks likely with favorable flow and ample lake induced instability. Have kept the forecast entirely liquid across the area for late Friday night, however model soundings/top down methodology suggest that some of the higher terrain from Mansfield to Medina could see some wet snowflakes mix in for a time, if surface temperatures can cool to the mid 30s or lower. If some mixing occurs, there will obviously be no impact/accumulation given the recent above normal temps and warm ground, and the probability of even seeing a mix at this point is too low for anything other than rain showers in the forecast. Favorable flow, lake induced instability and lingering moisture will continue lake effect rain showers across the snowbelt behind the shortwave Saturday. Surface high pressure will move northeast through the Ohio valley Saturday and into the mid Atlantic region by Sunday morning, with winds backing southwest and weak WAA effectively shutting off any lake effect by Saturday evening. High pressure will keep conditions dry through the day Sunday as it moves off the coast over the Atlantic Ocean, however the next cold front will approach the area from the northwest, with surface low pressure moving northeast into the Ohio valley ahead of the front. Latest models are in better agreement with the evolution of this pattern than last night's runs, which seems to keep the area dry into Sunday evening. The models still differ on the extent of precip with the frontal passage Sunday night, so have went with low chance pops to keep close to previous forecast an take into account the latest data. No big changes to temps from previous forecast, with a cool Saturday warming up a bit on Sunday. Highs will be in the upper 40s/low 50s Saturday and in the upper 50s on Sunday. Lows will generally be in the mid 30s to low 40s Friday night and Saturday night, and in the low 40s Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cooler weather pattern continues through the long term period. Biggest forecast question mark at this point is precip potential Monday and Monday night, as the cold front sits just southeast of the forecast area and a series of low pressure waves lift northeast along the boundary. The best chance for widespread precip looks to be during the day Monday across the far southeast part of the forecast area, but only confident enough to go with high chance pops at this point. Models start to diverge a bit Monday night into Tuesday, with the GFS keeping precip chances across the entire area and nearly stalling the front just southeast of the area, while the ECMWF keeps most of the area dry with a northern stream trough digging into the Great Lakes bringing a shot of cold air and west/northwest flow to the area. The GFS is a bit slower with the northern stream trough, and at this point, have leaned the forecast towards the ECMWF solution, which keeps most of the area dry late Monday night through Wednesday, outside of lake effect rain showers across the primary snowbelt. Highs will generally be in the low/mid 50s through the period, with lows in the mid/upper 30s. && .AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Mainly MVFR ceilings will be expected through the next 24 hours. There are some IFR ceilings for a few hours early this morning for the Youngstown and Canton area. A cold front will move through the area and shift the winds from southwesterly to westerly this morning. Winds will be around 10 knots becoming gusty by mid morning with gusts 15 to 25 knots later this morning through the afternoon. Wind gusts will relax by 00z this evening. As mentioned, ceilings will be mainly OVC to BKN between 2000 to 3000 feet for most of the morning through the afternoon. There are indications clouds will hold on through the evening and overnight as well around 3K to 4K feet. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR through Friday. Non-VFR possible again on Sunday. && .MARINE... A strong cold front across the western basin of Lake Erie will quickly move east across the lake this morning, moving east of the lake by midday. Winds will veer westerly behind the front, increasing to 20-25 knots through the day and tonight before subsiding to 15-20 knots Friday and veering a bit more northwest late tonight into Friday. Will continue with the current small craft advisory through tonight. Winds will decrease a bit during the day Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds across the region. Winds will become southwest Saturday night through Sunday before the next cold front moves across the lake sometime Sunday night. Winds will increase out of the northwest behind the front through Monday before becoming light/variable through Tuesday as high pressure moves across the lake. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LEZ145>149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LEZ142>144. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Griffin NEAR TERM...KEC/Griffin SHORT TERM...Greenawalt LONG TERM...Greenawalt AVIATION...Griffin MARINE...Greenawalt