429 FXUS61 KCLE 110521 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 121 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...06z Aviation Forecast Update... .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over Wisconsin will track northeast into Canada overnight, pulling a strong cold front east across the area. High pressure over the Plains will expand east into the area from Friday into Saturday, then to the east coast Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Line of showers continues to weaken over Indiana as it pushes east with the cold front. Another area of showers continues to push northeast toward the area as well. Storm Prediction Center dropped marginal risk over our area as expected. I dropped POPs back considerably to chance. The exception is extreme east where there is a chance for high chance POPs in that area. QPF amounts will light across the area and dropped QPF amounts back as well. Temperatures still look reasonable. Original Discussion... Low pressure is centered over Wisconsin this afternoon with a cold front extending south across Illinois. Moisture is advecting into the region with southerly flow ahead of this front but a considerable amount of dry air is in place ahead of it. Regional radars show an area of showers over SE Ohio that may bring a few scattered showers to NE Ohio this evening. Otherwise an area of showers can be seen across Indiana with a fine line of showers along the actual cold front in Illinois. Thunderstorms have not developed yet across the region given considerable cloud cover and limited instability. As low pressure tracks northeast into Canada tonight, the cold front will sweep east across the forecast area. A broken band of showers is expected ahead of the front with a few thunderstorms possible as the upper trough lifts NE across the western and central Great Lakes. Winds aloft are sufficient for the Storm Prediction Center to have western portions of the area in a Marginal threat for severe weather tonight. We will be monitoring the cold front for an uptick in activity but at this time not expecting sufficient storm strength to see severe winds brought down to the surface. Isolated wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are more likely. Cold front will be just east of the area by Thursday morning bringing an abrupt change in temperatures. Highs in the east will be the 7 AM temperature then falling to near 60. Much drier air wraps in behind the system and skies should scatter out with time given considerable low level subsidence. Cold advection continues all the way through Thursday night with 850mb temps falling as low as -2C in the north. Lake effect clouds will expand Thursday night, becoming overcast downwind of Lake Erie. Some expansion also expected across NW Ohio with moisture off Lake Michigan. Lows on Thursday night will dip into the lower 40s except locally higher near Lake Erie. If clouds do not fill in enough then portions of NW Ohio could dip into the 30s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Could see some lake effect showers in the snowbelt by daybreak Friday, as the 850mb temps plunges to between -2c to -4c. Models coming into better agreement pushing the next system through Friday night. This early in the season expect all precip to fall as RAIN showers. However a little graupel is also possible, especially in the higher terrain Saturday morning. A few lingering showers are possible in the east Saturday morning, but everything will move quickly east as high pressure builds over the area. High pressure moves to the East Coast by daybreak Sunday. This will allow the next front to move into NW OH by Sunday evening. Temps will be a roughly 10 degrees below normal, or approximately 30 degrees below recent highs. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Models are differing on the timing of storm systems through the long term forecast. It will be colder with periods of showers possible Sunday through Monday night and possibly again on Wednesday. The showers are the uncertainty but the colder temp are expected. Temperatures through the long term will be 10 to 15 degrees below average. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Mainly MVFR ceilings will be expected through the next 24 to 36 hours. There are some IFR ceilings for a few hours early this morning for the Akron Canton area. A cold front will move through the area and shift the winds from southerly to southwesterly to westerly this morning. Winds will be around 10 knots becoming gusty by early to mid morning with gusts 15 to 25 knots later this morning through the afternoon. Wind gusts will relax by 00z this evening. There will be VCSH mentioned for the next few hours through 09z. As mentioned, ceilings will be mainly OVC to BKN between 1500 to 3000 feet for most of the morning through the afternoon. There are indications clouds will hold on through the evening as well around 3K to 4K feet. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR through Friday. Non-VFR possible again on Sunday. && .MARINE... South flow will continue through the evening, but a drastic change is on the way. A cold front will move across the lake overnight, with a second stronger cold front tomorrow afternoon. A small craft advisory will be needed Thursday through late Friday afternoon. Winds will turn to the West at 15-25 knots tomorrow, then turn to the NW tomorrow night. Winds will diminish Friday evening into Saturday as high pressure builds over the lake. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LEZ145>149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LEZ142>144. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...Griffin SHORT TERM...DJB LONG TERM...Mullen AVIATION...Griffin MARINE...DJB