018 FXUS61 KCLE 100510 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 110 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...06z Aviation Forecast Update... .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered off the Atlantic coast will continue to bring southerly flow and unseasonably warm temperatures to the region tomorrow. A strong cold front will push east across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Cool high pressure will build east across the Ohio Valley over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Not too many changes with this forecast update. Minor changes to sky cover and temperatures continue to be warm and humid for a night in October. Previous Discussion... Another day of near record or record breaking warmth with, as of 3 PM, three sites meeting the previous record and Erie PA breaking theirs. There is a slightly better looking cumulus field across western OH this afternoon. A stray shower/storm may result, but chance are very low. Have continued the slight chance mention for the next few hours. Otherwise a muggy night with a light south wind. Lows will be similar to last night (warmer than our normal high temps this time of year). Much of Wednesday will be fair, warm and humid too. We will be able to shave a few degrees off of the heat overall and have more lower 80s than mid 80s for highs. Cloud cover will be increasing from the southwest through the day and a few showers/thunderstorms will be reaching the I-75 corridor by mid to late afternoon. As of now severe threat looks low with limited instability, but potential for a few storms to have gusty/strong winds is there. Will continue to monitor. Showers/embedded thunderstorms overspread the remainder of the area Wednesday night. Lows will be mild in the 60s until the front passes. As of now it is expected to be across eastern OH by 8 am Thursday. Temperatures will fall in its wake and northwest OH may be in the upper 50s by that time. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Showers will likely linger across the eastern sections of the forecast area on Thursday as a cold front exits the region. Strong cold air advection will occur behind this front. 850mb temperatures as cool as 0 degrees will move across the lake late Thursday night into Friday. This will create a 850mb to lake temperature difference of 20C. The synoptic air environment is very dry, however with this type of instability, clouds and scattered showers are not out of the question for the traditional lake effect areas. An upper level short wave will move through the Great Lakes region Friday night into early Saturday. High pressure will begin to build over the region Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will move off the east coast by Sunday allowing the next area of low pressure to lift toward the central Great Lakes. The low looks like it will be weakening as it approaches but it appears we will be able to tap some Gulf Of Mexico moisture as the front moves into the region. Lots of uncertainty with the models on when this cold front will cross the region Sunday night through early Tuesday. Expect much cooler temperatures through the long term with temperatures below seasonal averages. Lows will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s, warmer near the lakeshore. Highs generally in the 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... VFR is expected for this morning through much of the afternoon. MVFR deck of clouds will develop and move in by late afternoon into Wednesday evening. A cold front will begin to move in from west to east during the last evening. A broken line of showers and storms are expected along the frontal passage Wednesday night and have tried to give timing according to high res models. There are some indication of IFR ceilings possible by the end of the TAF period but confidence is too low to include in TAF at this time. Winds will be southerly between 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots during the day today. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Thursday through Friday. Non-VFR possible again on Sunday. && .MARINE... A southerly flow will continue over Lake Erie through Wednesday. A cold front will move across the lake Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Winds will increase in speed on Wednesday night from the southwest. An abrupt shift will occur to the west and then northwest late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Strong cold air advection will keep northwest winds 15 to 25 knots over the lake Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Northwest winds will continue on Friday and become more westerly as a trough of low pressure crosses the lake. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Oudeman NEAR TERM...Oudeman/Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Garnet LONG TERM...Mullen AVIATION...Griffin MARINE...Garnet