834 FXUS61 KCLE 100229 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1029 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered off the Atlantic coast will continue to bring southerly flow and unseasonably warm temperatures to the region tomorrow. A strong cold front will push east across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Cool high pressure will build east across the Ohio Valley over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Not too many changes with this forecast update. Minor changes to sky cover and temperatures continue to be warm and humid for a night in October. Previous Discussion... Another day of near record or record breaking warmth with, as of 3 PM, three sites meeting the previous record and Erie PA breaking theirs. There is a slightly better looking cumulus field across western OH this afternoon. A stray shower/storm may result, but chance are very low. Have continued the slight chance mention for the next few hours. Otherwise a muggy night with a light south wind. Lows will be similar to last night (warmer than our normal high temps this time of year). Much of Wednesday will be fair, warm and humid too. We will be able to shave a few degrees off of the heat overall and have more lower 80s than mid 80s for highs. Cloud cover will be increasing from the southwest through the day and a few showers/thunderstorms will be reaching the I-75 corridor by mid to late afternoon. As of now severe threat looks low with limited instability, but potential for a few storms to have gusty/strong winds is there. Will continue to monitor. Showers/embedded thunderstorms overspread the remainder of the area Wednesday night. Lows will be mild in the 60s until the front passes. As of now it is expected to be across eastern OH by 8 am Thursday. Temperatures will fall in its wake and northwest OH may be in the upper 50s by that time. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Showers will likely linger across the eastern sections of the forecast area on Thursday as a cold front exits the region. Strong cold air advection will occur behind this front. 850mb temperatures as cool as 0 degrees will move across the lake late Thursday night into Friday. This will create a 850mb to lake temperature difference of 20C. The synoptic air environment is very dry, however with this type of instability, clouds and scattered showers are not out of the question for the traditional lake effect areas. An upper level short wave will move through the Great Lakes region Friday night into early Saturday. High pressure will begin to build over the region Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will move off the east coast by Sunday allowing the next area of low pressure to lift toward the central Great Lakes. The low looks like it will be weakening as it approaches but it appears we will be able to tap some Gulf Of Mexico moisture as the front moves into the region. Lots of uncertainty with the models on when this cold front will cross the region Sunday night through early Tuesday. Expect much cooler temperatures through the long term with temperatures below seasonal averages. Lows will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s, warmer near the lakeshore. Highs generally in the 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... VFR conditions will continue through much of the TAF period. Any daytime cumulus clouds from earlier today have diminished and only some cirrus remains over the region. A cold front will approach the area from the west on Wednesday allowing for slowly increasing clouds through the day. Winds ahead of the front will be from the south and there could be a gust or two to 20 knots in the afternoon hours. Rain will begin entering the western portions of the region with the front and have begun a precipitation mention in the KTOL and KFDY TAFs... also KCLE given the 30 hour TAF. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Wednesday night through Friday. Non-VFR possible again on Sunday. && .MARINE... A southerly flow will continue over Lake Erie through Wednesday. A cold front will move across the lake Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Winds will increase in speed on Wednesday night from the southwest. An abrupt shift will occur to the west and then northwest late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Strong cold air advection will keep northwest winds 15 to 25 knots over the lake Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Northwest winds will continue on Friday and become more westerly as a trough of low pressure crosses the lake. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Oudeman NEAR TERM...Oudeman/Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Garnet LONG TERM...Mullen AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...Garnet