625 FXUS61 KCLE 091734 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 134 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered off the Atlantic coast will continue to bring southerly flow and unseasonably warm temperatures to the region through Wednesday. A strong cold front will push east across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will slowly build east across the region late Thursday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Tweaked highs a little closer to yesterdays especially for Erie PA. Temperatures are running a degree or two apart from where they were at this time yesterday with the exception of the lakeshore. Still agree with the slight chances of a shower/storm to pop up across the I-75 corridor considering the current cumulus field. Will keep forecast as is with this midday update. Original discussion... Unseasonably warm temps/high dewpoints are again expected today as return flow continues to feed north through the region. Continued with trending warmer than guidance for highs today, with forecast temps very close to yesterday's highs. Kept a slight chance of storms along/west of the I-75 corridor for this afternoon. Hi-res models don't really have any convection developing across our local area, keeping development west/northwest of the area with the better instability. However, there could be a window of MLCAPE values up to 1000 j/kg and some weak mid level energy/low level lift that could trigger a stray storm, so will keep a few hours of 20% pops. Dry conditions will prevail overnight through Wednesday morning across the area. Precip chances will increase late afternoon as a cold front approaches the area from the west. Have slight chance/chance pops expanding eastward during the afternoon, with a couple hours of likely pops along/west of I-75 after 21Z. Highs on Wednesday are still expected to reach the low 80s across the area. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Big weather pattern changes on the way for the end of the week. An upper level trough will be swinging through the Great Lakes Region Wednesday night into early Thursday with an associate cold front. This cold front will be moving through the region very early Thursday morning bringing widespread showers and isolated storms. Instability will be weak during this time and severe weather is not expected but brief heavy downpours and some rumble of thunder is very possible. Temperatures will be falling on Thursday behind the passage of the front with our high temperatures likely occurring shortly after midnight. Clouds will hang for most of the day on Thursday and it will be blustery with northwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Clouds will hang on tight near the lakeshore region especially the Cleveland area and northeastward Friday. The 850 mb temperature will be between 0 to -3C Friday into Friday evening. This looks like a good setup for low level inversion with clouds and bands of rain showers across the snowbelt region Friday into Friday night and perhaps lingering into Saturday morning. Away from the lake across portions of western and central Ohio, temperatures will be chilly Friday night and again Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A surface high will move directly across the area on Saturday. We will likely see temperatures fall in the middle and upper 30s with patchy to areas of frost possible where winds are light. High temperatures will only manage the lower to middle 50s. Our next weather system will quickly move in on Sunday with another surface low developing across the Mid-Mississippi Valley Region and move northeastward across the Ohio River Valley. A strong trough will swing through the Great Lakes Region by early next week. Widespread rain showers will be likely again Sunday through Monday. It looks like it will also be blustery during this time frame. Temperatures will be slightly below average for a change this weekend into early next week. It will feel more like Fall. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... VFR conditions expected through the 24 hour TAF period. Inclement weather arrives after 18Z across western OH Wednesday with a strong cold front. A few showers/storms possible across far western OH with peak heating of the day amongst the diurnal cumulus around 5K feet, but rain chances too low to include in either the TOL or FDY TAF. Southerly winds with minor gusts to 20 knots today will back some tonight to more south- southeast before returning to south with minor gusts to 20 knots Wednesday. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Wednesday afternoon through Friday. Non-VFR possible again on Sunday. && .MARINE... Southerly winds will continue today 10 to 15 knots and persist through Wednesday. A strong cold front will approach and move through the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Winds will shift northwesterly and increase to 15 to 25 knots on Thursday. Lake conditions look rough by Thursday into Friday and a small craft advisory will be needed during this time frame. Surface high builds in by Saturday with lighter winds through Sunday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Oudeman SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Oudeman MARINE...Griffin