456 FXUS62 KCHS 111328 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 928 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE... .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Storm Michael will continue to move northeast through central Georgia and South Carolina today. Cooler and drier high pressure will then build in through the weekend before a coastal trough and cold front affect the area early to mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The satellite and radar presentation of Tropical Storm Michael suggests the system is beginning to transition to an extratropical cyclone. Tropical storm conditions are ongoing across much of southern South Carolina and the Georgia zones bordering the Savannah River. Winds will gradually diminish through the day as Michael moves into North Carolina. Tropical Storm Warnings will be discontinued through the day at the regular and intermediate advisories after coordination with the National Hurricane Center. May need to replace warnings with a brief Wind Advisory as mixing profiles post Michael suggest gusts could reach 35-40 mph at times over Southeast Georgia as skies clear later this afternoon. This decision will be made depending on Tropical Storm Warnings are dropped. Rain chances will diminish through the morning and be mainly confined to the areas bordering the Midlands and the Charleston Tri-County area. Adjusted pops down per radar trends. Skies will gradually clear through the afternoon, but should fill back in with shallow, stable cumulus, especially over interior Southeast Georgia. Highs will range from the lower 80s along the Midlands with upper 80s possible across the far southern Georgia zones. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Tonight: A cold front will kick Michael off the Delmarva and Virginia Tidewater, and this allows for cooler and much drier high pressure to build from the central U.S. We'll experience temps that will be at their lowest since May, and as skies become clear or mostly clear, upper 50s and lower 60s will be common inland from US-17, with the middle 60s closer to the coast. It will certainly feel more autumnal than it has been so far, but even these levels are still above average. Friday through Sunday: Cooler and drier high pressure will build in behind Michael through the period. The only fly in the ointment will be a weak low pressure trough early next week which could lead to a few showers given the moister onshore flow. Temperatures should still remain at or above normal though through the period. Saturday morning will be the coolest period when areas away from the coast will be in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak coastal trough early next week will bring a few showers. A cold front should then move into the area Monday night and linger until a stronger cold front pushes through toward the end of the period with better rain chances, including some thunderstorms. Temperatures look to remain well above normal until possibly Thu. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... KCHS: One last rain band associated with TS Michael with move through early this morning, with a few lingering showers to remain nearby into early afternoon. MVFR conditions will prevail during this time, before VFR conditions return after 19Z and prevail through the rest of the 12Z TAF cycle. Strong S winds of 30-40 kt will veer to SW at 25-35 kt during the late morning and afternoon, before winds shift to W at around 10 kt toward sunset. KSAV: A few light showers near the airport will end this morning, and the ongoing MVFR conditions will eventually give way to VFR weather this afternoon and tonight as moisture scours out in wake of departing TS Michael. SW winds will average 25-35 kt this morning, clocking around to W at 20-30 kt this afternoon, with W or WNW winds finally dropping off to 10 kt or less by sunset. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR likely through the weekend with a better chance of some brief restrictions at times thereafter. && .MARINE... Today: The large cyclonic circulation around TS Michael will produce hazardous maritime conditions across all waters today, and a continuation of the Tropical Storm Warning. South and southwest winds will be as high as 30 to 40 kt, with stronger gusts. Seas will be as high as 7 to 11 ft. Tonight: Once the Tropical Storm Warnings end by late today, they'll need to be replaced by Small Craft Advisories, as cool advection develops in the wake of a cold front that moves through, and high pressure that builds from the west and northwest. Friday through Tuesday: Cooler/drier high pressure will build in from the north late this week with a coastal trough likely developing early next week ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds/seas should stay below Advisory levels through the period. Rip Currents: A high risk for rip currents continues today due to strong winds and moderate swells. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Coastal Flooding: Cancelled the Coastal Flood Advisory for the Georgia coast as tides are now going below predicted values with the developing offshore flow. Advisory continues for the South Carolina zones with a tide expected to peak 7.1 ft MLLW in Charleston Harbor before winds shift. High Surf: Breakers can still reach as high as 5 feet at the beaches today, so the High Surf Advisory continues for one more day. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ117- 119-139-141. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ117-119- 139-141. SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ040-042>045-047>052. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ048>051. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ048>051. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for SCZ048>050. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ330-350-352-354-374. && $$