580 FXUS61 KCAR 110629 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 229 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will lift northwest of the area today and a weak secondary low will form along the coast early tonight. Drier air will circulate into the region on Friday as Michael tracks well south of the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Low pressure will track northwest of the area today as it pulls an occluded front toward the region. Moisture being pulled north along the front and overunning cooler air being held in place by high pressure to the northeast will produce rain throughout the area today. Northern areas will likely have the heaviest rain early today. A weak secondary low forming along a triple point along the coast may then enhance rainfall a bit along the coast late today into early this evening. A dry air intrusion following the passage of the occlusion will end rain across the state this evening. Drier air will move in aloft. However, a weak gradient near the surface will likely result in low clouds lingering over much of the region tonight. Total rainfall amounts from this event will range from a little over an inch in central areas to close to an inch and a half in far northern areas and the coastal Downeast region. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The extra-tropical remains of Michael will pass to the south and east of the Gulf of Maine Fri. The FA will be in offshore flow with clouds to give way to breaks of sunshine Downeast where there will be downslope flow. Northern areas will likely remain mostly cloudy with stratus. The rain associated with Michael and the frontal boundary remains offshore, but the outer most fringes could glance the immediate shoreline and especially the outer islands with a shower or two. A passing shower is also possible in the far north and mountains. Temperatures will be seasonable and range from the low to mid 50s north to around 60 Downeast. Dry and seasonable Fri night. On Sat, a mid level trough crosses the region. A weak sfc wave passing off the southern New England coast could graze our coastal areas with a passing shower. Otherwise, it will be a cool day with intervals of clouds and some sunny breaks. Highs will be below average and range from the low to mid 40s far north and mountains, and from 45 to 50 Downeast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sfc high pressure builds in Sat night and the sky should become clear to p/cloudy. Frost and freezing temperatures are possible across interior Downeast and frost advisories or freeze warnings may be required as we come to an end of the growing season Downeast. In the north, many of the valleys will drop below freezing. On Sun, the sfc high moves off the New England coast and it should be a decent fall day with a partly to mostly sunny sky. Temperatures will remain a bit below average, but it will be a few degrees warmer than Sat. Low pressure is expected to pass to the north of the area Sun night and Mon bringing some showers mainly to northern areas Sun night to be followed by a cold front Mon with a few showers, mainly in the north and mountains. There are still model differences, and the Canadian remains further south than the GFS or ECMWF with the low and would have more widespread overrunning rain across the region Mon afternoon and evening. There is even more uncertainty Tue- Wed. High pressure may follow for a cool dry day Tue, although some models and model ensembles run a wave of low pressure along the cold front off the New England coast and would bring rain to mainly Downeast areas Tue. Another weather system could affect the region with another chance of showers Wed. Temperatures Mon through Wed will generally be below average during the day, but more uncertainly at night depending on how weather systems eventually impact the area with possible clouds. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds and rain are expected today. Conditions tonight will likely range from IFR to MVFR as low clouds linger across the area. SHORT TERM: IFR or MVFR early Fri will improve to Predominately VFR at the Downeast terminals from mid to late morning Fri-Sun, with the slight chance that showers grazing the coast Fri & sat could briefly produce MVFR ceilings, especially at KBHB. Predominately MVFR at the northern terminals from KHUl- KFVE Fri and Fri evening with mostly VFR Sat-Sun, although can't rule out high end MVFR at times Sat, especially at KFVE. MVFR ceilings possible Mon in showers. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SCA for east winds gusting over 25 kt will be up through 3 pm today. Winds should then diminish later this afternoon into tonight as weak secondary low pressure forms near the coast then tracks east. SHORT TERM: The swell from extra-tropical Michael could require a small craft advisory for a time Fri night into Sat morning. Conditions are expected to be below SCA levels Sat afternoon through Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Bloomer/CB Marine...Bloomer/CB