738 FXUS61 KCAR 110135 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 935 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will approach from the west overnight and track northwest of the area Thursday, bringing an occluded front through the region Thursday night. High pressure will build in on Friday as Michael tracks well to our south. An upper level trough from Quebec will cross the region on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 9:30 PM Update...Forcast is still in good shape, with just some scattered rain showers out there at this hour. Looks like most of the shower activity will be confined to the Central highlands through Southern Aroostook County through midnight. Canadian radar is showing some more widespread rain to the north across Quebec Province. This more steady rain will begin to push south after midnight, impacting the Saint John Valley first. Overall a cool cloudy and damp night will continue with winds picking up over the coastal waters. 6:30 PM Update...No significant changes to the forecast with this update. Front has clearly pushed through the entire CWA and is slowly pushing south through Southern Maine. This is a classic backdoor cold front with weak NE cold air advection to continue in the low levels through the night. Warm moist air will continue to overrun this cooler air, with rainfall still expected to increas later tonight. Over the next few hours, light rain showers will continue off and on, especially north of Millinocket. Nearly all models are consistent with the idea of sct rn shwrs, lgt rn, and patchy dz going into the ovrngt hrs becoming more organized and heavier intially ovr the N by daybreak in the 850-500mb ovrrng/frontogenetical layer and then spreading swrd durg the day and becoming heavy alg the Downeast coast durg the aftn when llvl coastal frontogenesis plays a major role. This could rob some moisture from heavier rnfl rates across the N if the 12z GFS model solution is accurate, but for now kept 6hrly rnfl totals in the Thu 18-24z tm frame in the mdt range in deference to other models which show more QPF across the N than the GFS durg this tm frame. There may be enough cold air alf in the 950-800mb layer for rn to re-freeze as sleet for a rn/sleet mix across the Saint John vly area very late tngt and erly Thu morn, but not enough confidence to go with any sleet accumulation attm. Temps will be chilly tngt and quite chilly on Fri for day tm highs accompanied by a raw brisk east wind. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... With exiting disturbance, widespread precipitation will end shortly after midnight for most locations, with scattered showers into Friday morning. The greatest storm total amounts will be focused in the north and Downeast, with lesser amounts across central Maine from Bangor north to Baxter State Park. There will be a fairly widespread low level jet intensifying over the Gulf of Maine and the open ocean, with most of the higher gusts staying off the ME coast. Regardless, some higher elevations along the Downeast coast could see gusty winds continuing into late Thursday night. Cooler temperatures will filter in from the NW Friday with some thinning clouds Downeast. The north will likely hold on to clouds with deeper moisture moving over central Quebec. The chance for a passing shower exists in the far north, but there is little moisture in the lower levels to make it much more than a slight chance PoP. Conditions will remain dry Friday night into Saturday. Although lows will dip into the mid-30s Downeast and lower 30s in the north, winds in addition to cloud cover will be enough to hold off on frost mention for now. Saturday afternoon a mid-level trough will slide into the Northeast, pushing the resident amplified ridge downstream. Moisture will advance into the region behind a 140kt 250mb jetstreak oriented along the eastern seaboard, with the greatest chances of rain offshore. Another surface high pressure then advances across the eastern CONUS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Lows in the lower 30s will bring some areas of frost in the north with patchy frost Downeast Saturday night. Surface high pressure will crest Sunday, exiting Sunday night, with a large storm system intensifying over the Great Lakes. This will open transport for a couple rounds of moisture into the Northeast. Rain showers will overspread Maine late Sunday night through Monday. CAA behind the system will bring the chance for a few flurries to mix in with rain to the north Monday night. Showers taper Tuesday morning with a shortwave passing to the south. While much of the precipitation surrounding this wave will remain south of our area, some scattered showers could make their way into Downeast with chance PoPs. High pressure builds in Wednesday ahead of an upper low tracking across the Great Lakes. Temperatures through the period will run slightly below normal in the north and Downeast. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions across the TAF sites with intermittent lgt rn and dz this eve will lower to IFR late tngt and Thu morn in steadier/heavier rnfl, contg thru the remainder of the day Thu with brief pds of LIFR possible in heavier rnfl rates. SHORT TO LONG TERM: By Friday morning, conditions will improve to VFR at the Downeast terminals with MVFR likely to persist at the northern terminals from KHUL to KFVE in stratus through Fri evening. VFR conditions for the Saturday and Sunday, conditions will approach MVFR in the northern sites with approaching disturbance Sunday night into Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Will cont with current SCA slated to begin ovr our waters later this eve and winds and seas build and contg thru at least Thu morn before gradually subsiding below SCA thresholds Thu aftn. Kept close to WW3 guidance for fcst wv hts with short wind fetch wv pds of 4 to 7 sec. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Winds and seas will be below SCA conditions Friday. SCA for rough seas may be needed with passage of Michael Friday night and Saturday. Seas will build 5 to 8 ft Friday night and Saturday, subsiding in the afternoon and evening to 3-5ft. Below SCA returns Sunday and Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...VJN/Dumont Short Term...Cornwell Long Term...Cornwell Aviation...VJN/Dumont/Cornwell Marine...VJN/Dumont/Cornwell