155 FXUS61 KCAR 100629 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 229 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will reach the coast this morning then push offshore today. Low pressure will approach from the west tonight and track northwest of the area Thursday. High pressure will build in on Friday as Michael tracks well to our south. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A cold front will slowly push offshore this morning as a large subtropical high remains to our south. Showers and isolated heavier convective downpours may be along the front early this morning. Otherwise, today will remain mostly cloudy behind the front. Moisture circulating around the subtropical ridge and east ahead of a low in the Great Lakes area will stream into the area today into this evening. This will increase shower activity again across the north, initially in western areas and then throughout the region later tonight. A steadier rain will develop over the north later tonight as the approaching low lifts warmer more humid air up and over the chilly air at the surface, held in by high pressure over Quebec. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The FA remains in the cool air Thu with a warm front across the southern Gulf of Maine that will move north to the Downeast coast toward evening. Dual areas of low pressure in southern Ontario and southwest Quebec will lift north with an occluded front to push into western New England late in the day. The air mass could be just cold enough for a little sleet early in the day in the far north toward the Saint John Valley. Otherwise, it will be a damp day with rain and drizzle. The occluded front will push across the region Thu during the evening with rain to taper to scattered showers from west to east by late evening, but perhaps not until a little after midnight near the New Brunswick border. The occluded front may mix out some of the cooler near surface cool air with temps likely to rise a little during the evening, especially in the north. Cooler air lags until Friday, so temps will remain on the mild side. Rainfall totals are expected to range from 0.75-1.5" with locally higher amounts, especially over the central highlands. On Fri, slightly cooler and much drier air filters back into the area. There will likely be a lot of stratocu, especially in the north and mountains with nothing more than an isolated shower. Highs Friday will be seasonable and range from the low to mid 50s far north to around 60F in the Greater Bangor Region. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mainly dry and cool Fri night through the weekend. A mid level trough will work across the area Sat and could touch off an isolated shower in the north and mountains, but any showers will be brief and isolated. Temperatures are expected to be below average Sat with highs in the mid 40s north to around 50 degrees Downeast. The air mass moderates a bit Sun ahead of the next weather system with high temperatures about 5 degrees milder than Sat with sunshine followed by increasing clouds. The next weather system looks to affect the area Monday, but there are significant differences in the models and model ensembles. A frontal boundary will likely cross the area sometime late Mon or Mon night with a wave of low pressure to develop along the front which will likely bring some steadier rain to the area. The 00z GFS backed away from the idea of low pressure running up the Bay of Fundy with the potential for snow for northern areas, and for now will continue to discount the idea of any snow as it remains an outlier solution. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: Generally MVFR conditions are expected in variable low clouds today. Some areas will be IFR in low clouds early this morning as the front pushes south. and IFR again late tonight as an overunning rain develops. SHORT TERM: IFR and at times LIFR expected Thu into Thu evening in rain, drizzle, and fog. By late Thu night or Fri morning, conditions should improve to VFR at the Downeast terminals with MVFR likely to persist at the northern terminals from KHUL to KFVE in stratus through Fri evening. VFR expected over the weekend, however, in the far north (KFVE) times of high end MVFR are possible Sat. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA today. A SCA will be needed tonight for east winds gusting over 25 kt. Some fog may be over the waters early this morning before the front pushes through. SHORT TERM: A small craft advisory is in effect Thursday morning. Conditions are likely to be close to SCA levels into Fri ahead of and just behind an occluded front. Will need to monitor Michael and the swell as it passes well to the southeast of the coastal waters. It is possible another SCA could be required for the long period swell Fri night into Sat. The long period swell should become to subside late in the weekend. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Bloomer/CB Marine...Bloomer/CB