042 FXUS61 KCAR 092213 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 613 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front just north of the area will drop south as a cold front tonight into Wednesday. Low pressure will approach Wednesday night and Thursday and track to our northwest on Thursday night. A weak ridge of high pressure will build toward the region from the southwest on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 612 PM Update...Sfc analysis showed frontal boundary across the northern border region. Temps were in the 50s right along border while south of the boundary, temps were in the 60s and lower 70s. The latest HRRR and NAM12 lined up nicely w/the placement of the front and radar depiction. Radar was generally quiet w/some widely scattered showers across along and north of the border. Added the mention of drizzle along the front and kept it across the northern areas. The latest NAM12 soundings support this potential. Stayed close to the daycrew's assessment of introducing showers across the northern areas later this evening as the front starts to drop south. Hrly temps needed adjustment to fit the latest conditions w/what was mentioned above. There will be quite a contrast overnight w/the warmer temps remaining across the central and downeast areas. Previous Discussion... The frontal boundary will begin to sink down across northern areas tonight and then across downeast areas Wednesday. As the front begins to cross the region tonight, expect mostly cloudy skies and a few showers. Across downeast areas, expect partly cloudy skies. It will turn much cooler tonight behind the front, with lows across the north expected to range from the low to mid 40s. South of the front, it will continue unseasonably mild, with lows across down east areas only expected to fall to around 60 degrees. Wednesday will be a mainly cloudy and much cooler day. Moisture behind the front will keep the threat of some light rain or drizzle acoss the area much of the day. Temperatures across the north will remain nearly steady in the low to mid 40s. Across downeast, expect early highs in the lower 60s, with temperatures falling into the 50s by afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low cldnss, lgt rn and patchy dz will cont spreading NE to SW across the FA thru Wed ngt. Models cont to indicate that perhaps enough sub freezing air alf advects into the 925 to 800 mb layer for rn to mix with sleet ovr the St John vly area late Wed ngt into erly Thu morn before warmer air begins to turn the tide alf. Near the sfc, llvl cold air will hold ovr the FA thru Thu with very cool hi temps as more sig rnfl ovrsprds the FA from the W ahead of low pres and an associated occluded front from the upper great lakes and QB. Heaviest rnfl rates across the Rgn will occur during the aftn and eve just ahead and alg the passage occluded front. Warmer air S of the front ovr the Gulf of ME could result in patchy late ngt fog late Wed ngt and again Thu ngt ovr Downeast areas as it lifts ovr very shallow llvl cool air. There may actually be a recovery in temps Thu eve initially with the occluded front, which will be more toward the warm type (meaning that the initial cold advcn behind the front will be well alf), followed by stronger llvl cold advcn Fri behind a secondary surge of cooler air well behind the occlusion. In any event, steady rnfl will diminish to sct shwrs across the FA ovrngt Thu and then end Fri morn with rnfl totals generally between 1.00 to 1.50 inches with lcly higher amts ovr the highlands and possibly alg the immediate Downeast coast, which may receive an assist from an offshore coastal front. Behind the front, drier conditions are anticipated by Fri aftn with NNW sfc wind likely resulting in stubborn SC cld cvr ovr spcly Nrn ptns of the FA with near seasonal temps. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... After a dry and fair Fri ngt, a follow-up s/wv associated with a re-enforcement of cooler air will keep some cld cvr arnd and daytm slgt chc PoPs of shwrs msly across the N on Sat followed by clrg skies Sat ngt and contd fair conditions into Sun morn. Clds will again be on the increase Sun aftn and eve with the next chc of sig rnfl late Sun ngt into Mon with another sfc low and associated s/wv alf associated with deep warm advcn from the upper great lks area into the St Lawrence Vly, although initially, rnfl totals with this system look to be less a half inch. Max PoPs with this system is in the likely category for now. Colder air movg in behind Mon's system could result in precip ending as rn/sn shwrs across the N Mon night. The 12z dtmnstc GFS model solution for Tue is out of phase with the 12z ECMWF model run, with the GFS solution not getting much support from it's own ensm, so for now, we show diminishing PoPs thru the day on Tue with seasonably cool temps rather than the implied sn event for Nrn areas, mixed rn/sn Cntrl and cold rn event Downeast implied by the dtmnstc 12z GFS model run. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: Widespread MVFR/IFR is expected across the north tonight as a cold front begins to sink south across the region tonight. Across downeast, mainly VFR is expected. Expect widespread MVFR all sites in showers and ceilings. SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR Conditons are xpctd for all TAF sites ovrngt Wed thru Thu eve in more general rnfl and/or patchy fog with conditions improving to VFR clgs Downeast sites and MVFR Nrn TAF sites late Thu ngt and Fri morn, contg so thru Fri aftn. All TAF sites should have improved to VFR by Fri eve, contg thru both Sat and Sun. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Marginal SCA conditions can be expected into tonight. Winds/seas will then remain below SCA levels on Wednesday. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Marginal SCA winds/seas will likely cont Wed ngt into Fri with Erly to Srly winds ahead and NW winds behind an occluded front. Kept close to WW3 wv hts this fcst update with primary wv pds of of 4 to 7 sec with short fetch wind wvs and contg so into Fri, then transitioning back to 10 to 12 sec swell Fri ngt and Sat as the remains of Michael pass well SE of our waters which will likely result in another pd of SCA conditions and possible hi near shore surf. Winds and seas should then gradually subside below SCA thresholds Sat ngt and remain so on Sun. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Duda/Hewitt Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Duda/Hewitt/VJN Marine...Duda/Hewitt/VJN