901 FXUS62 KCAE 111042 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 642 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Please see the latest advisory on Michael from the National Hurricane Center. Michael will move northeast and out of east- central Georgia early this morning, then cross South Carolina through the day today. There will be a threat of strong winds, tornadoes and flash flooding. Periods of tropical storm force wind gusts will occur. Dry and cooler weather will occur in the storm's wake over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The center of circulation from Michael is moving into the CSRA early this morning, then will be moving into the Midlands by sunrise. Threat for tornadoes will continue to exist in bands north and east of the main rain shield through early morning. Heavy rainfall also will remain an issue across the cwa. Tropical storm wind gusts will also continue to be possible as the center moves through the region, and even on the backside of the exiting system for a portion of the morning hours. Because of these issues, a both a Flash Flood watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect through the day. Temperatures early this morning ranging through the 70s. Daytime temperatures remain fairly steady through the morning, then as Michael exits and some breaks in the clouds occur through the afternoon, temperatures should climb back into the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... An approaching cold front will sweep Michael rapidly off to the northeast of the cwa this evening, with clearing skies, drying conditions, and decreasing winds through tonight. Dry weather Friday with light north wind. Temperatures close to normal. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Behind the cold front, dry high pressure will prevail through Sunday. As we move into Monday, moisture may begin to increase ahead of another approaching cold front, which may bring isolated showers to the region during the early portions of the week. Temperatures remain close to normal. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High confidence for widespread IFR /MVFR restrictions through the morning with improving conditions through the afternoon hours. Tropical Storm Michael continues to move northeastward and increase in forward speed. Remains of the eye will pass AGS/DNL shortly then move west of CAE/CUB by late morning. Heavy rain along with strong and very gusty winds will continue over the next couple of hours then the heaviest rain and strongest winds will move north of the terminals. Winds gusts up to 45 knots will be possible at CAE/CUB with slightly lower speeds elsewhere. As the center of the storm crosses the terminals expect winds to shift quickly to westerly then northwesterly. As Michael moves north of the region later this afternoon conditions will improve with all sites returning to VFR by 21z and winds continuing to subside overnight. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation expected at this time. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ040-063>065-077. Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ040-063>065-077. SC...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ015-016-018- 020>022-025>031-035>038-041. Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031- 035>038-041. && $$