566 FXUS62 KCAE 110559 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 159 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Please see the latest advisory on Michael from the National Hurricane Center. Michael will move northeast across Georgia overnight then cross South Carolina through Thursday as a tropical storm. There will be a threat of tornadoes and flash flooding. Periods of tropical storm force wind will occur. The main time period for the most significant impacts is late tonight and Thursday. Dry and cooler weather will occur in the storm's wake over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... With the approach of Michael overnight, the threat of tornadoes and flash flooding will be on the increase through the night. Models still support general rain amounts exceeding 2 inches in the south part by sunrise. There may be greater amounts and rainfall rates may be excessive with precipitable water well over 2 inches. A Flash flood watch will be in effect beginning tonight. As Michael nears the region late tonight towards morning, winds will be on the increase. Models still show potential for wind gusts 25 to 40 knots reaching the south part toward sunrise.. Temperatures will he held up tonight because of mixing and the tropical air mass. Expect lows ranging through the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Current forecast brings the center of Michael across the cwa through the day Thursday. The storm will have weakened during its time moving across much of GA, but still expect to have tropical storm force winds and gusts across a large portion of the cwa. Models still showing strong low-level winds, with wind gusts 30 to 50 knots. The highest wind will likely occur right along and just to the east of the center of circulation. Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for the entire forecast area. In addition to the winds, there will be a tornado threat due to the expected high shear and sufficient instability. The threat will be greatest in the eastern half of the cwa. Finally, the flash flood threat will continue through the day Thursday. The fast storm movement will limit the threat somewhat but the guidance consensus indicates many locations will have amounts around 4 inches and there will likely be excessive rainfall rates associated with the tropical moisture. Flash flood watch remains in effect through the evening hours Thursday. An approaching cold front will sweep Michael rapidly off to the northeast of the cwa by Thursday evening, with clearing skies, drying conditions, and decreasing winds through Thursday night. Dry weather Friday with light north wind. Temperatures close to normal. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Behind the cold front, dry high pressure will prevail through Sunday. As we move into Monday, moisture may begin to increase ahead of another approaching cold front, which may bring isolated showers to the region during the early portions of the week. Temperatures remain close to normal. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High confidence for widespread IFR /MVFR restrictions into Thursday morning. Hurricane Michael was over central GA at 06Z and will continue moving northeast across the TAF sites through 15Z. Widespread rain with cig/vsby restrictions along with strong gusty winds with frequent gusts 25 kt to 35 kt. Should see improving conditions 18Z-21Z as Michael moves into NC. By 21Z VFR conditions will return to all TAF sites as skies clear and wind begin to diminish. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No restrictions to aviation expected attm. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ040-063>065-077. Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ040-063>065-077. SC...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ015-016-018- 020>022-025>031-035>038-041. Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031- 035>038-041. && $$