711 FXUS62 KCAE 101741 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 141 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Please see the latest advisory on Michael from the National Hurricane Center. After making landfall in the Florida panhandle, the storm will weaken and track northeastward across Georgia and South Carolina through Thursday as a tropical storm. There will be a threat of tornadoes and flash flooding. Periods of tropical storm force wind will occur. The main time period for the most significant impacts is late tonight and Thursday. Dry and cooler weather will occur in the storm's wake over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... With the approach of Michael overnight, the threat of tornadoes and flash flooding will be on the increase through the night. Models still support general rain amounts exceeding 2 inches in the south part by sunrise. There may be greater amounts and rainfall rates may be excessive with precipitable water well over 2 inches. A Flash flood watch will be in effect beginning tonight. As Michael nears the region late tonight towards morning, winds will be on the increase. Models still show potential for wind gusts 25 to 40 knots reaching the south part toward sunrise.. Temperatures will he held up tonight because of mixing and the tropical air mass. Expect lows in the mid 70s to around 80. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Current forecast brings the center of Michael across the cwa through the day Thursday. The storm will have weakened during its time moving across much of GA, but still expect to have tropical storm force winds and gusts across a large portion of the cwa. Models still showing strong low-level winds, with wind gusts 30 to 50 knots. The highest wind will likely occur right along and just to the east of the center of circulation. Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for the entire forecast area. In addition to the winds, there will be a tornado threat due to the expected high shear and sufficient instability. The threat will be greatest in the eastern half of the cwa. Finally, the flash flood threat will continue through the day Thursday. The fast storm movement will limit the threat somewhat but the guidance consensus indicates many locations will have amounts around 4 inches and there will likely be excessive rainfall rates associated with the tropical moisture. Flash flood watch remains in effect through the evening hours Thursday. An approaching cold front will sweep Michael rapidly off to the northeast of the cwa by Thursday evening, with clearing skies, drying conditions, and decreasing winds through Thursday night. Dry weather Friday with light north wind. Temperatures close to normal. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Behind the cold front, dry high pressure will prevail through Sunday. As we move into Monday, moisture may begin to increase ahead of another approaching cold front, which may bring isolated showers to the region during the early portions of the week. Temperatures remain close to normal. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Some mvfr conditions at a few locations, with conditions slowly improving to vfr. Then ceilings and visibilities lowering overnight through the end of the TAF period as heavy rainfall and strong winds from Michael move into the area. Scattered to numerous showers expected for the remainder of today as moisture continues to spread inland from the coast ahead of Michael. Showers may lower visibilities at TAF sites through the rest of the day. Overnight: steady, heavy rainfall will move into the forecast area. Expected to reach AGS/DNL this evening accompanied by strong SE winds with gusts to 25 kts. Then reaching the remaining terminals around or after midnight. Winds will gradually veer as the storm progresses through the region. Wind gusts of up to 35 kts are expected after midnight into Thursday morning and may be higher if a thunderstorm moves over a terminal. High confidence in IFR conditions or lower. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Conditions improve late Thursday as Michael exists the forecast area. Dry and cooler weather will occur in the storm's wake over the weekend. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ040-063>065-077. Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday evening for GAZ040-063>065-077. SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031- 035>038-041. Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday evening for SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041. && $$