547 FXUS62 KCAE 101047 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 647 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Please see the latest advisory on Hurricane Michael from the National Hurricane Center. The hurricane is forecast to make landfall on the Florida Panhandle this afternoon. The storm will track northeastward across Georgia and South Carolina through Thursday as a tropical storm. There will be a threat of tornadoes and flash flooding. Periods of tropical storm force wind will occur. The main time period for the most significant impacts is late tonight and Thursday. Dry and cooler weather will occur in the storm's wake over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today...Strong southeast low-level flow through the morning weakening a bit in the afternoon will result in a deep moisture transport into the area ahead of Hurricane Michael. Expect precipitable water above 2 inches. Warm advection/isentropic lift will result in widespread showers and a few thunderstorms given moderate instability with SBCAPE above 2000 J/kg. Radar at 06z showing heavier showers in the coastal plain spreading northwest into the Midlands. Categorical pops most areas during the morning diminishing in the afternoon as moisture flux shifts to the north. Temperatures should be a degree or two cooler than yesterday given widespread precipitation although some breaks expected in the afternoon especially int he southeast Midlands. Tonight...The threat of tornadoes and flashing flooding will be on the increase tonight. Shear will be on the increase. The models depict h85 wind increasing to over 50 knots toward sunrise. This shear combined with instability associated with the tropical moisture will lead to a threat of tornadoes especially after 200 am. Tropical moisture will be on the increase from the south tonight. Precipitable water will be well over 2 inches. The guidance consensus supports general rain amounts exceeding 2 inches in the south part by sunrise. There may be greater amounts and rainfall rates may be excessive with precipitable water well over 2 inches. We have posted a flash flood watch. General wind will be on the increase as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of Michael. The GFS and NAM Bufkit momentum transfer tool suggested gusts 25 to 40 knots reaching the south part toward sunrise. The GFS had the higher wind values. Temperatures will he held up tonight because of mixing and the tropical air mass. Expect lows in the upper 70s to around 80. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Confidence is high the center of Michael will move through the forecast area Thursday. Considerable time over land will have caused the storm to weaken into a tropical storm by the time it crosses the forecast area. The GFS and NAM Bufkit momentum transfer tool suggests general wind gusts 30 to 50 knots. The GFS has the greater wind values. The highest wind will likely occur in the east part of the forecast area to the right of the center and where instability will be greatest. We have posted a tropical storm warning for the entire forecast area. The main hazard will be a threat of tornadoes with very high shear and sufficient instability. The threat will be greatest in the east section where the NAM and GFS depicts surface-based LI values -1 to -3. The models have h85 wind 50 to 70 knots. There will also be a threat of flash flooding associated with the tropical moisture and precipitable water well over 2 inches. Storm movement will limit the threat somewhat but the guidance consensus indicates many locations will have amounts around 4 inches and there will likely be excessive rainfall rates associated with the tropical moisture. We have posted a flash flood watch. Drying and diminishing wind should occur Thursday night with the storm lifting northeast of the forecast area. We expect dry conditions Friday with light north wind. The guidance consensus supports lows about 60 Thursday night and highs near 80 Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dry ridging will dominate through Saturday. Moisture may increase in an onshore flow Sunday but will probably remain too shallow for showers. The models display a cold front with limited moisture Monday or Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF MOS support pops 20 to 30 percent. The MOS has temperatures close to normal. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IFR Ceiling restrictions this morning with scattered to numerous showers moving into the area as moisture continues to spread inland from the coast well in advance of Hurricane Michael. Ceilings are expected to rise to VFR by midday as moisture flux shifts to the north of the terminals and showers become more scattered. Low clouds likely to return after 00z as the tropical cyclone approaches from central Georgia. Widespread rain overnight with a few thunderstorms. Shifting and gusty winds mainly southeast 15 to 30 knots with higher gusts possible after 06z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Impacts expected from Hurricane Michael...including very strong and gusty winds along with heavy rainfall...through Thursday night. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ040-063>065-077. Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday evening for GAZ040-063>065-077. SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031- 035>038-041. Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday evening for SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99